Recommended Bets: Week 13

Philadelphia -9.5

PHI @ MIA12/1 1:00PM
Wager:PHI -9.5
Cover Probability:56.00%
Cover Edge:6.92%

LA Chargers -2.5

LAC @ DEN12/1 4:25PM
WagerLAC -2.5
Cover Probability:55.0%
Cover Edge:5.0%

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Breakdown: Philadelphia (-9.5) @ Miami

We lead off week 13 featuring another Dolphins bet, this time fading them as 9.5 point underdogs against the Eagles. I go a bit further into why the model keeps picking Dolphins game, and also break down the Eagles.

Week 12: We’re Sitting Out

Unfortunately, it looks like the model is underwhelmed by the value on this weeks slate of games. The top option is the Lions -3.5 over the Redskins, which has a pretty slim 1.23% cover edge. I'm recommending we fade the model here, since Lions QB Matt Stafford won't be playing. The Lions offense has been... Continue Reading →

Recommended Bets: Week 11

Buffalo -5.5

BUF @ MIA11/7 1:00PM
Wager:BUF -5.5
Cover Probability:57.81%
Cover Edge:10.36%

Kansas City -3.5

KC @ LAC11/18 8:15PM
WagerKC -3.5
Cover Probability:51.55%
Cover Edge:-1.58%

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