Philadelphia -9.5
| PHI @ MIA | 12/1 1:00PM |
| Wager: | PHI -9.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 56.00% |
| Cover Edge: | 6.92% |
LA Chargers -2.5
| LAC @ DEN | 12/1 4:25PM |
| Wager | LAC -2.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 55.0% |
| Cover Edge: | 5.0% |
Breakdown: LA Chargers (-2.5) @ Denver
Ever wonder how Phil Rivers keeps track of 9 kids? Luckily, we don't have to figure that out. You should still bet the Chargers -2.5 if you got the line available, though.
Breakdown: Philadelphia (-9.5) @ Miami
We lead off week 13 featuring another Dolphins bet, this time fading them as 9.5 point underdogs against the Eagles. I go a bit further into why the model keeps picking Dolphins game, and also break down the Eagles.
Week 12: We’re Sitting Out
Unfortunately, it looks like the model is underwhelmed by the value on this weeks slate of games. The top option is the Lions -3.5 over the Redskins, which has a pretty slim 1.23% cover edge. I'm recommending we fade the model here, since Lions QB Matt Stafford won't be playing. The Lions offense has been... Continue Reading →
Week 11 Recap: Our Win Rate is Unsustainable
I recap a very friendly week 11 slate where we took down all 3 of our bets, putting our season-long win rate at 59%. Life is good in the gambling streets.
Breakdown: Kansas City (-3.5) @ LA Chargers
Lost all your money on Sunday? Never fear, we're jumping on the Chiefs bandwagon just as their offense is getting healthy, who are taking on the Chargers Monday Night in Mexico.
Breakdown: New Orleans (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay
The model calls for a razor thin 0.43% edge betting the Saints, but read on here to find out why we're green lighting this game anyway.
Breakdown: Buffalo (-5.5) @ Miami
After taking week 10 off, we're back to the gambling streets, which naturally means we're back to betting a Dolphins game. This time we're taking the Bills -5.5 on the road.
Recommended Bets: Week 11
Buffalo -5.5
| BUF @ MIA | 11/7 1:00PM |
| Wager: | BUF -5.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 57.81% |
| Cover Edge: | 10.36% |
Kansas City -3.5
| KC @ LAC | 11/18 8:15PM |
| Wager | KC -3.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 51.55% |
| Cover Edge: | -1.58% |
