Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as... Continue Reading →
Super Bowl Prob Bets That Don’t Suck
We don’t have a model for props, so this isn’t anything too official — my process is essentially to look at various projections and other stats to try to find value. With today being the last day of the football season, I thought we'd have fun and throw out some prop bets. The lines are... Continue Reading →
Super Bowl Wager Breakdown
The super bowl, ever heard of it? I take a look at the line, injuries, and a break down of the matchup.
Championship Weekend Recap: Prop Bets Only
Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as... Continue Reading →
The Bucs Have Value at +3.5
We can debate about tenths of percentages on DVOA, exact positioning on power rankings, at the value of playing at home, but at the end of the day our model shows this game to be roughly a pick 'em. +2.5 would be reasonable; +3.5 is too far. Take the points and hoist the jolly roger.
Prop Bets That Don’t Suck: Championship Weekend
Since the model couldn't find value in either spread this week (and I suspect the same thing will happen for the Super Bowl), I thought I'd take a look at a few prop lines that I believe have value. We don't have a model for props, so this isn't anything too official -- my process... Continue Reading →
Recommended Bets: Just Enjoy Football, You Degenerates
The model didn't find value in either Conference Championship game.
My title is stupid. We'll be betting props. More on that later.
Divisional Round Recap: The Dawg Pound
Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.
Recommended Wager: Cleveland (+10) over Kanas City
2020 is the year of the dogs, and we're taking the biggest dog of the weekend who has a section of their stands called "The Dawg Pound." Good luck trying to convince me that the model, which exclusively uses advanced NFL statistics and in-house power ranks, isn't actually just narrative hunting. Take the Browns +10 over the Chiefs.
Bet these teams to top their divisions in 2021
While our domain here at First and Thirty falls squarely on football, we’re casual degenerates much like the rest of you, and casual degenerates don’t have many NFL wagers left to make this season. To give you something to root for this winter, you should bet on each of these NHL teams to claim the... Continue Reading →
