NFL betting, done brilliantly
| MIA @ DAL | 9/22 1:00pm |
| Wager | MIA +21 |
| Cover Probability: | 69.72% |
| Cover Edge: | 33.09% |
| NYJ @ NE | 9/22 1:00pm |
| Wager: | NYJ +22.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 60.18% |
| Cover Edge: | 14.88% |
| BAL @ KC | 9/22 1:00pm |
| Wager: | KC -6.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 57.23% |
| Cover Edge: | 9.26% |
| PIT @ SF | 9/22 4:25pm |
| Wager: | SF -6.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 56.38% |
| Cover Edge: | 7.63% |
Here at FirstAndThirty we do not discriminate against 22.5 point dogs. In fact, we bet them.
The model thinks 22 point spreads are silly. We're backing the dogs in a big way this week, starting with the Dolphins over the Cowboys.
We went 4-0 week 1. To be nice to our bookie, we decided to take 3 losers. It's common courtesy, really.
Each week the model picks a game that makes you cringe. This is that game. We're looking for the Skins to keep it within 5 at home against the Cowboys.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65205621/1173210317.jpg.0.jpg?resize=600%2C9999&ssl=1 "Breakdown: Baltimore -13.5 over Arizona")
Who says the model doesn't like big favorites? We'll gladly take the Ravens over the Cardinals. You can start with two touchdowns, it's fine.
The model loves the Raiders +8 over the Chiefs. That may seem absurd given the state of both teams, but who doesn't like a team getting more than a touchdown at home?
| KC @ OAK | 9/15 4:05pm |
| Wager | OAK +8 |
| Cover Probability: | 59.38% |
| Cover Edge: | 13.36% |
| ARZ @ BAL | 9/15 1:00pm |
| Wager: | BAL -13.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 58.14% |
| Cover Edge: | 10.99% |
| DAL @ WAS | 9/15 1:00pm |
| Wager: | WAS +5 |
| Cover Probability: | 54.97% |
| Cover Edge: | 4.94% |
We look back at an exciting week 1 where we were lucky enough (jk, skilled) to go 4-0. It's good to start off the season the right way.
