NFL betting, done brilliantly
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | CIN @ IND | IND -7.5 |
| SUN 4:25PM | GB @ TB | TB +1.0 |
| SUN 4:05PM | NYJ @ MIA | NYJ +9.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | CLE @ PIT | PIT -3.0 |
Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.
For our final bet of the week, we're taking the Steelers and their dominant pass rush against a struggling and less than 100% Baker Mayfield.
I promise not to spend a ton of time on this shit game. The model sees the Dolphins as one of the worst teams in football, and spotting them 9.5 points is simply too many.
You may not like betting against Aaron Rodgers, but the Bucs are at home and the better team according to Football Outsider's DAVE stat, so I'm not at all surprised that the model likes this one. Take the point and make the bet.
Taking a look at the Colts (-7.5) over the Bengals, which is the model's favorite bet of the week. A dominant Colts defense up against a rookie QB and poor offensive line sounds like a recipe for success.
We will be applying three quantitative adjustments in Week 6, increasing model accuracy by about 1 point.
With week 4 in the books and most of the injury news being reported, we take a look at what happened and how it impacts each team moving forward.
It's been a tough few weeks for the First and Thirty guys, but at least we were able to salvage things slightly with the Saints comeback win on Monday night.
We went in a slightly different direction with this one, recommending a tease with the Rams and Saints. This explains how to approach betting this depending what lines you have available as well as a brief breakdown of both games.
