Seattle @ Chicago
Vegas: Chicago -3.5
DomModel: Chicago +1.523
Recommendation: Seattle +3.5
-WR Doug Baldwin suffered a MCL sprain. He’ll likely need a few weeks.
Chicago Bears – healthy
When Seattle has the ball:
Seattle turned out to be more or less exactly what we thought they were last week. The offensive line performed poorly, and they will likely be without Doug Baldwin (MCL sprain). Behind Baldwin is speedster Tyler Lockett and Brandon Marshall. TE Will Dissly, who is more of a blocking specialist, was a surprise factor in the receiving game (5 targers, 3 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD). RB’s Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny also got involved in the passing game (collectively: 10 targets, 7 catches, 63 yards). There was enough to see here to have us not totally freak out about Baldwin. As mentioned last week, I still think there should be positive regression for the Sehawks red zone rushing game.
The betting market is likely creaming their pants after Khalil Mack registered a sack, pass defended, interception, touchdown, and fumble recovery. He probably banged your girlfriend, too. After Mack, the Bears have DE Aikeem Hicks, NT Eddie Goldman, and LB Danny Trevathan to boost their front seven. It’s decent enough, but don’t overreact to one game.
In the backfield, the Bears may have a Prince (Amukamara), but this is a unit that can be picked on.
TL;DR Conclusion: I don’t see the Bears front seven as being THAT scary. The Seahawks can hold back their tight end blocking specialists and attack the Bears corners, even without Baldwin. This is a relatively even matchup, even if most don’t see it that way.
When Chicago has the ball:
The Bears have a strong offensive line and running game (Jordan Howard), but Mitch Trubisky still hasn’t shown us he’s a starting caliber QB and his weapons leave a lot to be desired unless you’re one of those Allen Robinson truthers. They’re getting there, but they got a ways to go.
Read my write up on them last week. Not much has changed – this is a defense that lost a LOT, but they were preparing for this. They picked off Case Keenum three times in the opener. That obviously won’t happen every game, but they were able to keep it within 3 on the road.
TL:DR Conclusion: The model thinks Seattle should be a slight favorite, and we’re getting 3.5 point. Seattle is ranked better in fivethirtyeight, PFF, and Football Outsider’s rankings, so we aren’t exactly on an island here. 3.5 points is a great line for us. Take it and try to find room under your mattress for all those dollar bills we’re making you.
I know, right?
That’s it for now, bitches.