Recommended Bet: Arizona +6 over Chicago

by Brady

Chicago @ Arizona
Vegas:
CHI -6
DomModel: CHI -1.364
Recommendation: ARI +6

Key injuries:
Arizona Cardinals:
-TE Jermaine Gresham was inactive in week 1 and week 2 (Achilles).
-WR Larry Fitzgerald suffered a hamstring injury in his week 2 game. He is expected to play week 3.

Chicago Bears – There must be something in the pizza over there, the Bears are healthy

Breakdown:
When Arizona has the ball:
There really isn’t any sugar coating it for the Cardinals. They have the worst offense in the league (well, technically second worst since I don’t consider the Bills an NFL team). Sam “dink and dunk” Bradford can barely keep his completion percentage above 60%. It’s hard to blame him, either — the Cardinals offensive line is basically opening a door and giving a welcome basket to enemy pass rushers. Meanwhile, new HC Mike McCoy thinks David Johnson is a between the tackles bruiser rather than a hybrid wide receiver that can break runs outside. In the receiving game, 2nd round pick Christian Kirk has been a bust so far. The Cardinals seem hell-bent on relying exclusively on old man Larry Fitzgerald (who is still playing awesome) until they have to start propping him up and using strings to make him run slants over the middle.

It’s bad, guys.

And yeah, this is the team we’re betting on. Do I look scared?

Image result for fuck that, i ain't never scared gif

Chicago defense:
This Chicago defense is all the rave so far. Luckily for you, DomModel doesn’t understand recency bias. A lot of what we’re doing still involves pre-season projections because you can’t make definitive conclusions from a 2 game sample.

But let’s give Chicago’s defense the 2 game credit they deserve, even if it isn’t nearly as important as most think. Their run defense has given up 3.6 yards per carry (even if it’s been against Seattle and Green Bay),  Khalil Mack has already totaled TWELVE pressures, and Bryce Callaha and Prince Amukamara have both been solid corners. If you recall, last week I said Amukamara is a “prince in name only.” I don’t take that back, that was a solid joke… but he’s quickly proving me wrong.

At the end of the day this is still a two game sample, and what we know about this Bears defense is they aren’t this good.

TL;DR Conclusion: On paper, this is a very difficult matchup for the Cardinals. Luckily for us we got six points and the game is in Arizona.

When Chicago has the ball:
Chicago’s offense has been much more in line then what we thought they are. Mitchell Trubisky is rocking a 5.4 yards per attempt (hint: not good) along with 2 TD’s and 2 picks. He’s behind what’s actually been a really solid offensive line so far – they haven’t allowed a single sack or QB hit all season. Jordan Howard is having another productive year, and newly acquired WR Allen Robinson has held his own. The reality is in today’s NFL you need a quarterback to be a solid offense, and the Bears don’t have one yet.

Arizona’s defense:
Yikes, their defense sucks too. Arizona sucks, okay? I’m not bullshitting you. They are better than what we’ve seen so far, though. Last year’s sack leader Chandler Jones only has 4 total pressures so far. S Antoine Bethea has also underperformed. Trust me, this defense will rise up all the way to below average.

TL:DR Conclusion: Both sides are whatever. Take the home team.

I’m honestly not surprised at all that the model took the Cardinals. Six points at home is a lot to give up, and the Bears really aren’t that great. The Cardinals suck too, but we got plenty of room to work with.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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