Week 3 is in the books. We went 3-0 this week. This really doesn’t matter because I don’t care about short term results, but I’m just stating facts. We went 3-0. That’s a fact. It doesn’t matter but we went 3-0. Fact. Let’s break it down.
New Orleans +3 over Atlanta
Vegas: Atlanta -3
DomModel: Atlanta +0.969
Recommendation: New Orleans +3
The model says this game should have been close to a pick em (it preferably New Orleans by less than a point). Vegas gave us New Orleans plus 3, and the game went into overtime. Suck it, Vegas.
As predicted, this game was an absolute shootout. Drew Brees was able to do whatever he wanted, as the Saints offensive line dominated the Falcons front 7. The Falcons continue their trend of giving up passes to RBs as Alvin Kamara was targeted 20 times. Yes, twenty. As in 2-0. That is not a typo.
On the other side of the ball, Matt Ryan had an incredible game as former Alabama star Calvin Ridley broke out for 146 yards and 3 TDs. On the ground, however, the Falcons struggled without Freeman – collectively the running game averaged 2.2 yards per carry. I specifically called out Cam Jordan in the analysis, suggesting that he was too good to be playing this poorly. Jordan had a clutch game, finishing with 2 sacks and 2 tackles for a loss. He came up big toward the end while the Falcons were driving toward a field goal that would have won them the game.
Final score: New Orleans 43, Atlanta 37 (OT).
Washington +3 over Green Bay
Vegas: WAS +3
DomModel: WAS -1.494
Recommendation: WAS +3
Similar to last game, the model slightly preferred the Redskins at home, and we were getting them with 3 points. The skins ended up wining outright for an easy cover.
Naturally, we weren’t calling for the Skins to crush, so some serious stuff had to go wrong for the Packers. The Packers lost RT Bryan Bulaga. His replacement, Jason Spriggs, played like crap. They also had key third down drops from Randall Cobb and Lance Kendricks. Aaron Rodgers also injured his hamstring and definitely wasn’t himself.
Meanwhile, the Redskins were able to get out to an early lead and control the clock with effective runs from the corpse of Adrian Peterson. Alex Smith also played very well against a poor Packers secondary. We got some luck on our side, but this was still a great bet.
Final score: Washington 31, Green Bay 17
Arizona +6 over Chicago
Vegas: CHI -6
DomModel: CHI -1.364
Recommendation: ARI +6
I told you Arizon’s offense stinks, and they met expectations. Sam Bradford played so poorly that they replaced him with rookie Josh Rosen with 4 minutes to go in the game. Bradford ended with 2 picks and 2 fumbles. The first drive of the game saw two 30+ yard completions (30 yards pass to Christian Kirk + 35 yard touchdown pass to Ricky Seals-Jones). Bradford then hit up David Johnson for a 21 yard score after a Mitch Trubisky fumble. Arizona was up 14-0 after the 1st quarter. They wouldn’t score the rest of the game.
Tribusky struggled all game as Arizon’a secondary looked surprisingly competent. Or Tribusky is just that bad? Either way, those 14 points in the 1st were enough to cover.
Final score: Chicago 16, Arizona 14
Good job on winning money this weekend if you followed our bets. Shame on you if you didn’t. Did I mention we went 3-0? That feels good.
That’s it for now. More to come next week.