Week 4 is in the books. Traditionally, I try to get this out Monday or Tuesday, but I was on vacation. Sue me.
Anyway, we ended up splitting the two games we recommended. We also made a pretty crucial fade on the model that I’ll explain. Let’s get into it.
Dallas (-3) over Detroit
On Sunday, the line actually moved down to 2.5, and I actually put another bet in on Dallas. 3 points is a very crucial line, and movement either way can be big. Without any major injury news, I’m happy to be on team #trusttheprocess and simply bet more.
What else can we say about Zeke? I mean, other than more talk about his bellybutton, which is for sure going to continue. He ran the ball 25 times while averaging 6.1 yards per carry, good for 152 yards. The Cowboys offensive line was also consistently able to win in the trenches.
A lot was made about the Cowboys defense without linebacker Sean Lee. As I wrote in the preview, Lee is a crucial part of this defense. I still think others tend to overweight his significance, however. Rookie Leighton Vander Esch ended up filling in for Lee and played well.
The problem for Dallas was their defenses inability to stop Golden Tate, who caught all 8 of his targets for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. Still they played well enough elsewhere to win the game, just by 2 points instead of 3. Shit.
Final Score: Dallas 26, Detroit 24
Cincinnati (+5) over Atlanta
This game showed exactly why we recommend checking out the site earlier in the week to get your bets in. The model grabbed a consensus of 5 when it was run last Wednesday, but the game moved all the way down to 3.5 on Sunday. The game ended up being a shootout, and we’re always happy to have the points in that spot.
I’ve made a big deal out of the Falcons defensive injuries, and it was a big part of this game. The Falcons two starting corners (Desmond Trufont and Robert Alford) have escaped the Atlanta injury bug, but their two starting safeties (Keanu Neal and Richardo Allen) are both out. Alford and Trufont looked pedestrian, which probably comes as a surprise since both corners are solid. I have to think the lack of safety help is a big part of this, as AJ Green and Tyler Boyd had their way with the Falcons secondary all game. Gio Bernard was able to chip in on the ground when called upon, with 15 carries for 69 yards (nice) (4.6 ypc).
Matt Ryan was also lights out on offense. The biggest difference was the last two complete drives of the game. For Atlanta, Ryan missed Austin Hooper on a third down conversion and had to settle for a field goal. Andy Dalton, meanwhile, reached down into his soul (JK, gingers don’t have souls) and converted some clutch 4th downs and threw a dime to AJ Green for the game wining touchdown.
Final score: Cincinnati 37, Atlanta 36
Why we faded Miami +7
Because they lost by 80 points, dummy.
No, ok. I think that the model was overrating Miami due to their easy schedule (vs TEN, @NYJ, vs OAK). It’s too early in the season for the model to discount teams because of their schedule, so it’s something we’re aware of when we’re selecting games. Luckily, the model is accounting for past schedule going forward, so we won’t have to worry about this.
I also felt like New England starts slow and was bound to rebound, but Dom just called me a “huge fucking Pats homer,” so take that for what it’s worth (he’s a Jets fan).
The other issue was the line had fallen to 6.5 by the time we recommended the games, so we didn’t even have the line available to us. I think that’ll happen pretty rarely since we recommend games right after the model has run, but we’ll certainly reevaluate recommended bets in case it does happen. In the end, Dom and I agreed: the line sucked at 6.5, was meh at 7, and we liked it at 7.5 Since the line never moved to 7.5, we didn’t recommend it.
I’m going to try to do a better job getting these explanations out ahead of time since they’ll come across as more genuine. The issue this week was I was on vacation and was being lazy.
Not a bad quarter of the season. We’re also 0-2-1 in spreads decided by 1 point or less, so that’s encouraging for regression.
That’s it for now, bitches.