Recommended Bet: Tennessee (-3.5) over Buffalo

by Brady

Tennessee @ Buffalo
Vegas: Buf +3.5
DomModel: Buf +7.831
Recommendation: Ten -3.5

Key injuries:
Tennessee Titans:
-TE Delanie Walker was placed on IR with a dislocated ankle.
-QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) was taken out of week 1. He will play, but profootball doc says “He will not be 100% for a while.
-S Kenny Vaccaro injured his elbow week 4.
-LB Wesley Woodyard injured his shoulder week 4.

Buffalo Bills:
-DE Shaq Lawson pulled his hamstring in week 1 and was INACTIVE week 2 and 3. He returned week 4 to play 25/76 snaps.
-RB Shady McCoy hurt his ribs in the week 2 game against the Chargers and was INACTIVE week 3. He played week 36/58 snaps week 4.
-S Micah Hyde (groin) left his week 4 game and did not return.

Breakdown:
When Tennessee has the ball:
Tennesee’s offense has been lackluster at best this year. The good news is pro bowler tackles Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan are finally healthy, which should help their offensive line. Marcus Mariota is now 4 weeks removed from a week 1 elbow injury. Though the expectation is he’s still working through issues, he did play well against the Eagles last week (30/43, 69.8% completion, 344 yards, 2 TDs, 1 pick).

The Titans two headed backfield of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis was a preseason favorite, but neither has played well this season. Lewis literally didn’t carry the ball once last game and is rocking a 3.3 ypc on the year, while Derrick Henry is at 3.0 ypc. These look more like grade point averages, guys.

Through the air, 2017 5th overall pick Corey Davis has been balling. He lit up the Eagles for a 9/161/1 line on 15 goddamn targets. His target share on the Titans is just shy of 40%. Behind Davis are complimentary receivers Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor.

Buffalo’s defense:
Well, this defense naturally isn’t very good. Let’s see.. what can I say that’s good? Lorenzo Alexander and Shaq Lawson have been solid along the edge. Micah Hyde has provided some stability to the defensive backfield.. but, oh wait, he might not play. Oh! Tre’Davious White is a lockdown corner. Watching him shadow against Corey Davis will be a fun matchup.

Yeah, they aren’t very good.

TL;DR Conclusion: We saw signs last week that Marcus Mariota’s elbow is finally improving. If the Titans can get their two star running running backs going against this pedestrian run defense, it’ll be cover city, population us.

When Buffalo has the ball:
LOL, Buffalo’s offense. That’s funny.

Josh Allen sucks.

Tennessee’s defense:
Tennessee got off to a rocky start, giving up 27 points on the road to Miami. The next 3 games have stabilized a bit (vs HOU, @JAX, vsPHI). Veteran Brian Orakpo has paired nicely with rookie Harold Landry to set the edge. Will Compton and Wesley Woodyard have both been great in the 2nd level, Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccao have both played well at safety, and Adoree’ Jackson holds his own at corner.  Vaccaro and Woodyard both left last weeks game with injuries, and these are situations to monitor. All in all, it’s not bad for Tennessee. Not bad at all.

TL:DR Conclusion: The Bills stink and Tennessee doesn’t. The model likes 3.5 points on the road. Good enough for me! What say you, Mike Vrabel?

Image result for mike vrabel

I know, I’m making you blush.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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