Recommended Bet: Green Bay (-9.5) over San Francisco

by Brady

San Francisco @ Green Bay
Vegas: GB -9.5
DomModel: GB -10.779
Recommendation: GB -9.5

Key injuries:
San Francisco 49ers:
-QB Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL. He’s out for the season.
-WR Marquise Goodwin (hamstring/quad) was INACTIVE week 5. He practiced in full on Thursday (10/11).
-WR Pierre Garcon (shoulder/knee) left his week 5 game, but was able to return. He did not practice on Thursday (10/11).
-RB Matt Breida (shoulder/ankle) suffered an ankle injury week 5. XRays were negative, but he could still miss time. He did not practice on Thursday (10/11).
-LT Joe Staley’s (knee) was QUESTIONABLE for week 5, status was “in doubt”, but he played every snap. He did not practice on Thursday (10/11).
-RG Joshua Garnett (toe) was INACTIVE weeks 3 – 5. He practiced in full on Thursday (10/11).
-RG Mike Person (knee) did not practice on Thursday (10/11).
-C Weston Richburg (knee) did not practice on Thursday (10/11).
-CB Jimmie Ward (hamstring) was INACTIVE week 5. He showed up late in the week on the injury report. He was limited in practice on Thursday (10/11).

Green Bay Packers:
-QB Aaron Rodgers is still dealing with a knee injury from week 1, but should keep playing through it.
-WR Randall Cobb (hamstring) was INACTIVE weeks 4 and 5. He was limited in practice on Thursday (10/11).
-WR Geronimo Allison left his week 4 game with a concussion. He was INACTIVE week 5. He was limited in practice on Thursday (10/11).
-TE Jimmy Graham (knee) did not practice on Thursday (10/11).
-DT Muhammad Wilkerson suffered an ankle injury during week 3 and is on IR.
-LB Nick Perry (ankle) left his week 5 game and did not return. He was limited in practice on Thursday (10/11).
-CB Davon House (shoulder) has been placed on IR.
-CB Jaire Alexander (groin) left his week 4 game and was INACTIVE week 5. He was limited in practice on Thursday (10/11).
-CB Bashaud Breeland (hamstring) was INACTIVE week 5. He was limited in practice on Thursday (10/11).

Live look at me breaking down the injury reports.

Image result for charlie kelly mailroom gif

Holy injuries, batman.

Breakdown:
When San Francisco has the ball:
I feel for the 49ers offense. They lost RB Jerrick McKinnon right before the season started and QB/sexy human being Jimmy Garoppolo week 2. They invested a large portion of their salary cap in both players, and now their offense is shot.

Overall, the 49ers offensive line has been solid so far this year, but there are injury concerns. They lost RG Josh Garnett earlier in the season, and he was replaced by Mike Pearson. Garnett hasn’t played since week 2, but is back practicing in full. Pearson, meanwhile, isn’t practicing. LT Joe Staley is dealing with a knee issue that’s causing him not to practice, and so is C Weston Richburg. There’s enough going on here where there are concerns from a projection standpoint, but they could also all just end up playing. Injury life is tough.

The 49ers were without WR Marquise Goodwin last game, but he’s practicing in full. Meanwhile, Pierre Garcon left last weeks game and isn’t practicing. Wide receiver giveth, wide receiver taketh away.

The 49ers turned to a committee backfield after McKinnon’s injury. It features two running backs who can’t catch, aka they’re pretty much worthless in 2018. Oh, and one of them (Matt Breida) left last weeks game with an ankle injury and isn’t practicing. That leaves Alfred Morris as the top back. I could have sword Morris was 45 years old, but apparently he’s still 29.

This is a mess, and I haven’t even mentioned that their quarterback is fucking CJ Beathard.

Green Bay’s defense:
Green Bay’s defense has stepped up from terrible last year to, hey,-they’re-actually-pretty-good this year. The front is lead by Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels along the line, edge defenders Reggie Gilbert and Nick Perry, and linebackers Blake Martinez and Clay “roughing the passer” Matthews. They’re a decent group that has stepped up to form a solid pass rush and is stingy against the run.

Defensive back is where we start looking at the injuries. Tramon Williams, Josh Jackson, and Jaire Alexander have played the most raw snaps this year. Both Williams and Jackson are healthy, and Kevin King can step up if Alexander (groin) can’t go. It’s a situation where at first glance it looks horrible, but there’s enough depth here where it shouldn’t be a huge problem.

TL;DR Conclusion: The 49ers offense couldn’t move the ball against a series of parking cones.

When Green Bay has the ball:
They have this guy Aaron Rodgers at quarterback – maybe you’ve heard of him. Rodgers has been dealing with chronic knee issues, but I’m running with the idea that he’s going to be able to toughen it out until we see otherwise. The Packers have been dealing with tons of injuries at receiver. Top WR DeVante Adams seems fine. Slot man Randall Cobb missed the last two weeks and is back practicing. Geronimo Allison is out with a concussion and has been limited in practice, a sign that he hasn’t cleared protocol yet. To make it matters worse, TE Jimmy Graham popped up on the injury report with a knee issue. Marquez Valdes-Scantling stepped up and played well last week. It’s really unclear who is going to play, but I think between Cobb/Allison/Graham at least 1 should play, and the offense will be just fine.

At running back, the Packers go with a three man committee all with specific skill sets. Aaron Jones is the best pure runner, Jamal Williams is the best in pass protection, and former WR Ty Montgomery is the best receiver.

49ers defense:
San Francisco’s defense has been pretty awful, as expected. They’ve played pretty well against the run this year, and if your dumb enough to throw to Richard Sherman’s side that usually hasn’t ended well. Outside of that, they suck.

TL:DR Conclusion: So we have Aaron Rodgers against one of the worst defenses in the league. I will not say anything else.

As Dom explained in his of hooks and wongs post, 10 is a crucial barrier. We’re happy to be the correct side of it here.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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