Recommended Bet: Kansas City (-6) over Cincinnati

by Brady

Cincinnati @ Kansas City
Vegas:
KC -6
DomModel: KC -9.59
Recommendation: KC -6

Key injuries:
Cincinnati Bengals:
-WR John Ross (groin) was INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He practiced in full all week. He is playing.
-TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) is out of the season.
-TE Tyler Kroft (foot) left his week 5 game and did not return. He was INACTIVE week 6 and did not practice all week. He is OUT week 7.
-RB Geo Bernard (thigh) was injured during his week 4 game and will be out 2-4 weeks. He was inactive weeks 5 and 6 and did not practice all week. He is OUT week 7.
-OL Billy Price (foot) was INACTIVE weeks 3 – 6 and did not practice all week. He is OUT week 7.
-LB Nick Vigil (sprained) MCL was injured week 6 and is expected to miss a month. He did not practice all week. He is OUT week 7.
-CB Darqueze Dennard (Sternoclavicular) did not practice all week. He is OUT week 7.
-S Shawn Williams (concussion) was injured week 6 and did not return. He will play week 7.

Kansas City Chiefs:
-C Mitch Moore (concussion) was injured during his week 6 game and did not return. He did not practiced all week and is OUT week 7.
-RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif fractured his fibula during his week 5 game and did not return. HC Andy Reid said he isn’t done for the year, but he’ll miss time (likely around 8 weeks). He is OUT week 7.
-LB Justin Houston (hamstring) left his week 5 game and did not return. He was INACTIVE week 6 and did not practice all week. He is DOUBTFUL week 7, aka he isn’t playing.
-LB Tanoh Kpassagnon (ankle) left his week 5 game and did not return. He was INACTIVE week 6, but practiced in full on Wednesday (10/17) and Thursday (10/18), then was limited on Friday (10/19). He is officially QUESTIONABLE, but is likely healthy enough to play.
-S Eric Murray (lower leg) left his week 5 game and did not return. He did not practice Wednesday (10/10). He was INACTIVE week 6, but practiced in full all week. He is officially QUESTIONABLE, but is likely healthy enough to play.
-S Eric Berry is till recovering from an Achilles injury he suffered week 1 of last year. He has not practiced or played this year. The Chiefs are calling him doubtful. That’s stupid. He isn’t playing.

Breakdown:
When Cincinnati has the ball:
Cincinnati’s offense has been solid all year. Andy Dalton is on fire (red head joke!). WR Tyer Boyd is breaking out in his third year, and AJ Greene is still a legit WR1. At tight end, they’re down two Tyler’s (Kroft and Eifert). That hurts them depth wise, but they should get speedster John Ross back this week. Meanwhile Joe Mixon is a talented all purpose back, both a solid runner and receiver. The weakness for the offense has been their line, particularly since Billy Price (foot) got hurt. Price will remain OUT for week 7.

Kansas City’s defense:
Yeah, we’re betting on this team, but I have to tell it like it is. They suck. They can’t cover (Kendall Fuller and Steve Nelson suck). They can’t rush the passer (Dee Ford is actually good, but Justin Houston is out and everybody else sucks). They can’t stop the run (opponents averaging 5.4 ypc). They just suck, okay?

TL;DR Conclusion: It’s hard not seeing the Bengals offense having success in this spot. The bright spot is the game is at Arrowhead, which is one of the tougher stadiums in the league to play in.  The model treats all home field advantages equally, so that’s at least something.

When Kansas City has the ball:
Now we’re talking! This offense crushes literally everybody.  Pat Mahomes has a rocket arm – I don’t mean that figuratively, it was literally created in a lab by super smart scientist people. He teams up perfectly with Tyreek Hill, who just torches everybody. This was my favorite play from last Sunday.

Patriots safety Duron Harmon tried to square up Hill, seeing which move he will make. Hill is like, “Dude, I don’t need to make a move. I’m literally just going to run by you.” There’s one guy in the league capable of making that play.

Anyway, should I just continue down the list? Travis Kelce is still a top tight end in the league, and Kareem Hunt is fantastic in the backfield.

These guys are really, really good.

Cincinnati’s defense:
So now I have to talk about the Bengals defense. Yeah, this is kind of awkward. They can’t really cover all that well.. they rank 20th in pass defense DVOA and Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson both have been generous in giving up yardage. Yeah, that’s not good.. let’s see here.. oh, they’re even worse against the run. They rank 25 in run defense DVOA and are giving up 4.7 ypc this year.

DT Geno Atikins is really good, tho.

TL:DR Conclusion: Sorry Cincy, this isn’t a matchup you’re winning, particularly at  Arrowhead.

I’m expecting another shootout, as is custom in any game Kansas City plays.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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