The trade deadline officially past at 4:00pm today (October 30th). We had a ton of moves, and these things could absolutely effect this weeks slate of games and how we look at them from a gambling perspective. That said, most won’t and are just noise. Let’s break it down:
Trade 1: Demaryius Thomas to the Texans
Texans receive: Demaryius Thomas, 7th round pick
Broncos receive: 4th round pick, 7th round pick, cap space
Thomas was one of the top names being floated around pre deadline – Demaryius himself even gave a “50/50” chance of being dealt last night. The main idea behind trading Thomas is a combination of his decline in play, the Broncos apparent love of rookie WR Courtland Sutton, and the fact that Thomas would have counted a hefty 14 million against the cap in 2019.
This year, Thomas had played on 75% of snaps. He was second on the team in targets, receptions, and yards (all behind Emmanuel Sanders). Without Thomas, the Broncos will likely often play with 2 wide receiver sets. Behind Sutton on the depth chart is 2018 4th round pick DaeSean Hamilton and 2017 UDFA Tim Patrick. Hamilton and Patrick have a combined 9 targets this year (hint: that’s a really low number).
Spread effect: The trade was first announced by Adam Schefter on twitter at 12:24pm today. At that time, Denver was a 2.5 point favorite. Now the game is at a pick em. Broncos fans may be sad about this one, but they can go to this game knowing it should still be a solid back and forth battle while rooting for the arbitrary notion of cap space. I would suggest one of these:
The move for Houston is pretty simple. Will Fuller tore his ACL last week, and the Texans needed help at wide receiver. This isn’t an exact 1 to 1 replacement – Fuller is 4.3 40 guy and a total burner. He’s a perfect player for a QB like Watson who loves to hold onto the ball and chuck it deep. In his time in Denver, Thomas specialized in more intermediate routes. That all said, Thomas is a productive player and this will help ease the pain of the fuller ACL tear (I mean this figuratively).
The fun part is the Texans are playing the Broncos this week, so we can spin up the revenge game narrative times infinity.
Trade 2: Golden Tate to the Eagles
Eagles receive: Golden Tate
Lions receive: A 2019 3rd round pick
The Eagles have been looking for wide receiver help for much of the season, even kicking the tires on old friend Jordan Matthews after he was let go by the Patriots earlier this season. It’ll be interesting to see how the Eagles use Tate — Tate had primarily played in the slot for Lions, but has experience on the outside. One would assume Tate would and Alshon Jeffery would be the 1-2 in WR sets, with Nelson Agholor as the third option. Jordon Matthews has mostly been playing outside this season after being a slot receiver for virtually his entire career. HC Doug Peterson should have some fun moving these guys around.
Spread effect: The Eagles are on bye this week, so no need to check any spreads.
It turns out the Lions were buyers and sellers at the deadline. After trading for Damon “Snacks” Harrison, the top run stuffer in the NFL, they dealt one of their top producers on offense, Golden Tate. The rationale seems simple enough to me — Tate is a 30 year old on the last year of his deal. Meanwhile, Kenny Golladay has been producing well in his second year. Since the Lions were likely going to let Tate go for nothing, you might as well grab something for him now.
Spread effect: The trade was first announced by Adam Schefter at 12:45 PM. At that time, Minnesota was a 4 point favorite over Detroit. The line currently sits at 5. That’s really not much of a meaningful move, but it’s something.
Trade 3: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to the Redkins
Redskins receive: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Packers receive: 2019 4th round pick
God damn, I was just thinking “Clinton-Dix to the Skins” and now I’m all hot and bothered.
Clinton-Dix mostly plays free safety. The Redskins typically have two free safeties on the field: D.J. Swearinger (great last name) and Montae Nicholson. Swearinger has enjoyed a breakout season, so my best guess is Clinton-Dix mostly takes over for Nicholson. As for the Redskins pass defense, they already rank 9th in Football Outsider’s DVOA statistic as a unit, so this bolsters and already impressive coverage team.
Spread effect: Schefty announced the trade at 2:48 PM (I’m assuming he was first, or damn close). Washington was at a 1.5 point favorite, and that’s where they remain. Free safety trades aren’t enough to move lines.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay moves on from their 1st round selection in 2014. Clinton-Dix was set to be a free agent, so clearly he simply wasn’t part of their long term plans despite being a productive player.
Spread effect: Like I said, free safety moves aren’t moving lines. The Packers remain a 5 point dog to the Patriots. I really just put this in here so I could make my “Clinton-Dix to the Skins” joke. Worth it.
Trade 4: DE Dante Folwer to the Rams
Rams receive: Dante Fowler
Jaguars receive: 2019 third round pick, 2020 5th round pick
Los Angeles Rams:
Good for the Rams, I love seeing a gritty team without much talent go out and try to make something of themselves. Yeah, they’re undefeated this season, but they haven’t even covered the spread every game. Good teams win, great teams cover.
As for the trade, the Rams already have a productive pass rushing unit. That said, their leaders in pressure are both interior guys (Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh). Fowler gives the Rams more of a pass rushing presence off the edge.
Spread effect: None, duh. Actually, the line moved from the Rams +1 (vs the Saints) to the Rams +1.5. The trade is very much irrelevant to the move.
Fowler comes with a ton of talent, but that hasn’t translated to success on the field. He was the 3rd overall pick in 2015. His rookie started with him tearing his ACL on literally the first day of mini camp. This year, he’s playing behind Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. The Jaguars must have figured they might as well get something for him while they still can.
Spread effect: Jacksonville is on bye this week.
Trade 5: Ty Montgomery to the Ravens
Ravens receive: Ty Montgomery
Packers receive: 2020 7th round draft pick
Ah, the old “we’re going to cut this guy, anyone want em? We’ll literally take anything. Come on.. anyone? A 7th round pick? DEAL!” It started with TyMont bitching on the sidelines about lack of playing time, and ended with him fumbling a kickoff that costs Aaron Rodgers (ever hear of him?) a chance for a comeback. The rumor is Montgomery was even told not to take the kickoff out of the endzone – so yeah, clearly the Packers were just done with him.
The Ravens already feature Buck Allen as a passing down back. I expect Montgomery to continue to be upset about playing time. Time is a flat circle.
Spread effects: LOL
That’s it for now. DomModel should be out tomorrow.