It’s Sunday fucking morning, boys. Hope you’re crushing Mimosas and Bloody Mary’s, or just are still asleep. BTW, slight admission of bias here: I think Bloody Mary’s are garbage. Vodka and ketchup? Yeah, no thanks. But you do you, my friends.
Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to look at the bets the model likes and how the lines have moved. We at firstandthiry believe the closing lines are sharper than opening lines, and therefore recommend getting bets in early. The model was run late Wednesday night. Let’s see where we are at.
- Bet KC -8.5 (Model: KC -12.680), currently KC -8. That’s a slight move away from the model, but not a big one by any means. If you haven’t bet it, we absolutely still recommend it.
- Bet CAR -6.5 (Model: CAR -13.539), currently CAR -6.5. No change, bet it if you haven’t.
- Bet WAS -1.5 (Model: WAS -6.851), currently WAS -2.5 The line moved 1 point toward the model. It still stayed under the 3 point hook, so not a bad bet.
- Bet LAR +1.5 (Model: LAR -2.483), currently LAR -2. Yikes. This line ran toward the model like it just found it’s long lost lover from the distance on the beach. There’s no longer any value here, don’t bet it.
- Bet LAC +1.5 (Model: LAC -0.011), currently a pick em. Same story, the model priced this one essentially at a pick em, so we liked either team with the points. That means there’s no longer any value.
There you have it. This week, the lines either moved toward the model or basically stood still. This won’t happen every week, naturally.. but it’s always best to get your bets in early.
Here’s to a successful week 9. Cheers, bitches.
(This pic is taken from the google machine, I don’t have that many friends).