Recommended Bet: Kansas City (-16.5) over Arizona

by Brady

Vegas: KC -16.5
DomModel: KC -23.815
Recommendation: KC -16.5

Key injuries:
Arizona Cardinals: (week 9 bye)
-RG Justin Pugh (hand) was INACTIVE weeks 7 and 8. He was limited in practice on Wednesday (11/7).
-DT Corey Peters (ankle) was INACTIVE week 8. He was limited in practice on Wednesday (11/7).
-S Tre Boston (shoulder/ribs) was INACTIVE weeks 7 and 8. He was limited in practice on Wednesday (11/7).

Kansas City Chiefs: 
-C Mitch Morse (concussion) was injured during his week 6 game and was INACTIVE weeks 7 – 9.
-RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif fractured his fibula during his week 5 game and did not return. HC Andy Reid said he isn’t done for the year, but he’ll miss time (likely around 8 weeks).
-C/G Jordan Devey (pectoral) was placed on IR.
-LB Justin Houston (hamstring) left his week 5 game and did not return. He was INACTIVE weeks 6 – 9.
-S Eric Berry is till recovering from an Achilles injury he suffered week 1 of last year. He has not practiced or played this year.

Breakdown:
When Kansas City has the ball:
Oh, you want to talk about what happens when Kansas City has the ball? Sex happens, that’s what happens.

This offense is unreal. Arguably a top 10 offensive line, a running back who leaps over anyone who gets in his way, a receiver who is faster than several animals who use all four of their legs, and the best receiving tight end in football. Oh, and this guy.

Image result for patrick mahomes

His arm isn’t human.

In all honesty, we’ve basically bet the Chiefs every week. If you are interested in learn more, feel free to read alllllllllllll about them in this one convenient place.

Arizona’s defense:
Does it matter?

No, it doesn’t.

But honestly, they’ve showed signs that this can be a capable defense. Chandler Jones is a top edge rusher, and Patrick Peterson and Budda Backer are actually a decent 1-2 combo at corner. They struggle more against the run, but have some play makers who have done well in that space (Josh Bynes, Budda Baker).

It just doesn’t matter.

TL;DR Conclusion: This will be a smah fest for Kansas City, like it always is.

When Arizona has the ball:
How much does the Cardinals love the Bills? If not for Buffalo, everyone would be making fun of them instead.

Arizona does almost nothing right on offense. Their offensive line is arguable the worst in the league. Their best receiver is a corpse (no offense Larry). They have an electrifying, all purpose running back who they refuse to use correctly (although that could change now that Byron Leftwich is their new offensive coordinator). As for rookie QB Josh Rosen, he’s struggled, and I just feel bad.

Kansas City’s defense:
Kansas City has struggled defensively, there’s no denying it. The bright spot has been DE Dee Ford’s breakout season as one of the premier pass rusher’s in the league, but he’s had very little help since Justin Houston went down. Besides, receivers are having no trouble getting open against the Cheifs corners.

As for the run? Yeah, their dead last in run defense DVOA.

TL:DR Conclusion: The Cardinals offense is just too bad to get anything going.

Obviously, the massive spread here gave us some pause in recommending it. At the end of the day, it’s one of the better teams in the league against on the worst teams. Though the model does not adjust for different types of home field advantages, you can make a reasonable argument that Arrowhead is one of the toughest stadiums to play in.

The concern, naturally, is as the spread grows, our goals become dis-aligned with the team. We’re ultimately recommending the bet because the model is just that far off Vegas, so we’re just fucking go for it.

That’s it for now, bitches.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Powered by WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: