Welcome to week 11. I’m doing my normal Sunday routine of preparing a shit load of football snacks, crushing coffee and mimosas, and of course, looking at NFL lines. I’m sure you’re more interested in the latter. Let’s have a peak.
BAL -4.5 over CIN (model BAL -10.784)
We ultimately faded this because of the mess at QB. It became clear that Joe Flacco was not going to play, so a manual adjustment should have been made. We also got the news that rookie QB Lamar Jackson was missing practice due to a stomach bug, and rumors that Robert Griffin III could take some snaps. We have a bit more clarity now with reports coming out that Lamar Jackson will actually start. The line now sits at BAL -6.5, remarkably moving toward a model that wasn’t accounting for a QB injury. Obviously, we still don’t think you should bet it.
CHI -2.5 over MIN (model CHI -9.227)
We happily went ahead and bet this one, with very little injury news on the Chicago side. The line stands at -2.5.
NYG -1.5 over TB (model NYG -6.622)
This was out second official recommendation. The line has moved toward the model at -3. It’s no longer a good bet.
KC +3.5 over LAR (model LAR +0.157)
The Monday Night game still sits at 3.5.
NOR (-8.5) over PHI (model NOR -11.578)
I’m calling this game out because the consensus has moved away from the model — from 8.5 to 7.5. We originally did not recommend this one since the model preferred other games. I won’t call this an official site recommendation because I don’t think that’s fair, but I did bet the Saints -7.5 (I got it at -105, but -110 is fine as well).
Hope you enjoy your Sunday. Cheers, bitches.
That’s a lot of fucking oranges.