Week 14 is officially official. We had a bad week. It happens. If you’re following a handicapper who doesn’t talk about these, they’re just fucking lying. Anyway, let’s break it down:
Cincinnati @ LA Chargers (-14)
Vegas: LAC – 14
DomModel: LAC – 20.588
Recommendation: LAC -14
The Chargers came away with a victory here, but they shouldn’t be happy about their offensive performance. Phillip Rivers and company did barely enough to win against a bottom of the barrel Bengals defense. Rivers went 19/29, but for just 220 yards and 1 touchdown. As is typically the case, he most frequently targeted Keenan Allen, who took 8 targets and turned it into 5 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown.
On the ground, the Chargers were still without Melvin Gordon. The week prior, Justin Jackson was wildly successful. This week, it was mostly Austin Ekeler, who put up a respectable 15/66/4.4/1 line. Jackson had just 12 yards on 7 carriers. Brutal.
On the other side, the Bengals rightfully limited what Jeff Driskel was allowed to do with the ball. Driskel had an extremely low 6.3 yards per attempt on 27 passes. Instead the Bengals relied on Joe Mixon to be a workhorse back and to bleed clock — a tough way to win in today’s NFL. Mixon went off for 114 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts.
Final score: LA Chargers 26, Cincinnati 21
Denver (-4) @ San Francisco
Vegas: SF +4
DomModel: SF +15.047
Recommendation: DEN -4
This one started off uggggllllly. The Broncos took a big blow earlier in the week, losing their clear cut #1 receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Once we knew Sanders would be out, the line dropped from 5.5 to 4. I thought that was more than fair for Sanders talents, but then the line dropped again to 3. It’s usually a bad sign when the lines move against us.
As for the game, the Broncos defense SUCKED. Georege Kittle went off for a casual 200 yards in the first half, including an 85 yard catch and run on busted coverage. Meanwhile, the Broncos were unable to get anything going offensively, and it was 20-0 at the half.
In the second half, the 49ers went run first, playing extremely conservatively. In the first half, the 49ers passed on 26 plays, and ran on just 13. In the second half, they passed only 10 times while running 17 times. They weren’t successful doing it at all, which allowed Denver to make a slight come back. Denver had some success throwing the ball to Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton — both were rarely used before the Sanders injury. The two combined for 19 targets, 14 catches, 132 yards, and a touchdown. Unfortunately, it just wasn’t enough.
Final score: San Francisco 20, Denver 14
Baltimore @ Kansas City (-6.5)
Vegas: KC -6.5
DomModel: KC -9.407
Recommendation: KC -6.5
This was a great game to just sit back and enjoy. You didn’t need to bet it, but we did, and that ruined everything.
As always, things start with Pat Mahomes. Mahomes was under duress most of the night, but he dealt with it the same way he has all season — gaining momentum outside of the pocket and frequently targeting Tyreek Hill (12 targets, 8 receptions, 139 yards) and Travis Kelce (9 targets, 7 catches, 77 yards, 1 touchdown).
We got another look at how the Chiefs would operate without Kareem Hunt — and it was the same as they always did — running about 40% of the time. Spencer Ware played well, gaining 5.0 yards per carry on 15 carries.
With the Ravens, it was more of what you’d expect. Lamar Jackson was an incredible runner, and pretty bad passer. Jackson ended up with 67 yards on 12 carries, but only completed 54% of his passes.
In the end, it was enough for the Ravens to keep up with the Chiefs. We never really had a good shot at covering – it was tied at the half, after the third, and then both teams scored touchdowns in the 4th to send it to OT. It ends with a KC field goal.
Final score: Kansas City 27, Baltimore 24
Minnesota @ Seattle (-3)
Vegas: SEA -3
DomModel: SEA -5.027
Recommendation: SEA -3
We head into Monday night down 0-3 on the week. Dom and I are both back from our weekend of getting drunk in DC. I’m hungover — but my wallet hurts worse than my head.
We did have some news that went against us. Doug Baldwin ended up not practicing all week. He ended up not playing after being a true game time decision. I never listed as injured because we bet the games on Wednesday. Since the Seahawks were playing Monday, they didn’t send out injury reports until Thursday. Sometimes that happens — I’d still much prefer to bet early rather than wait on injury news. Closing lines are just way sharper.
Besides, the line actually didn’t end up moving at all. 3 is such a key number it takes a lot for the line to move.
Onto the game. It kinda sucked, unless you’re into that old school bullshit where teams don’t score at all.
Man, it was bad. We went into the 4th with the Seahawks up 3-0. It was a fucking hockey game (I’m being a huge hypocrite, I love hockey). For Seattle — as you can probably guess with a total score of 3 — they were able to control things with their defense and effective ground attack. Chris Carson ended up with 22 rushes for 90 yards and a touchdown, and Russell Wilson ran for 61 yards on just 7 carries (8.7 average).
For Minnesota, they literally didn’t do anything offensively. Like, they had 0 points going into the 4th. I don’t think I need to say more.
About that 4th quarter, because stuff actually happened. After another field goal, the Seahawks were up 6-0. After some other nonsense, the Vikings actually put together a drive that didn’t suck ass — but finished with a field goal attempt that — well, sucked ass. The Seahawks took advantage, driving down the field, scoring a touchdown, and converting a 2 point attempt. The Vikings answered that with a fumble, and the Seahawks returned that for a touchdown. Suddenly, it was 21-0.
And that was all she wrote, save for a Vikings garbage time touchdown that salvaged the shutout. I would wake up the next morning with my head and wallet feeling slightly better.
Maybe it wasn’t such a shitty game after all.
Final score: Seattle 21, Minnesota 7
That’s it for now, bitches. We will see you next week.