I’m doing an abbreviated version of this, because it’s Saturday morning and nobody is going to read it.
Essentially, we dropped the ball. It was a busy week, but we still should have been able to get our recommended bets out earlier. It’s another perfect example as to why you need to get your bets in early. Most of what the model liked is now gone, leaving us with just two games left to bet. I’ll break them both down here.
Cleveland @ Denver
Vegas: DEN -2.5
DomModel: DEN – 10.925
Recommendation: DEN -2.5
-CB Terrance Mitchell broke his forearm week 4 and has been placed on IR. It is not necessarily season ending.
-CB EJ Gaines (concussion) was injured week 9. He was placed on IR on 11/7. Gaines had multiple concussions this year.
-CB Denzel Ward (concussion) was injured week 13. He was INACTIVE week 14 and is OUT week 15.
-CB Phillip Gaines (knee) was INACTIVE week 14. He was limited all week and is QUESTIONABLE for week 15.
-WR Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) was injured in practice on 12/5. He is on IR.
-WR Courtland Sutton (quad) will play week 15.
-TE Jeff Heuerman (broken ribs/bruised lung) was injured week 12 and is on IR.
-LG Ron Leary (torn Achilles) is out for the season after a week 6 injury.
-LG Max Garcia (knee) was placed on IR on 11/21.
-C Matt Paradis (leg) was injured week 9. He is on IR.
-LB Brandon Marshall (knee) was INACTIVE weeks 9 – 14. He will return week 15.
-LB Shaquil Barrett (hip) was INACTIVE weeks 13 and 14. He is OUT week 15.
-CB Tramaine Brock (rib) was injured week 12. He was INACTIVE weeks 13 and 14. He will return week 15.
-CB Chris Harris (leg) was injured week 13. The hope for the Broncos is he’ll be back for the playoffs.
After trading WR Demaryius Thomas to the Texans and losing Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos suddenly have a depleted receiver corp. Rookie Courtland Sutton remains their every down option, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype. Last week, the Broncos turned to 2017 UDFA Tim Patrick and 2018 4th round pick DaeSean Hamilton. Both players stepped up, combing for 19 targets, 14 receptions, 132 yards, and a touchdown. That said, I’d expect the Broncos passing attack to struggle against a Browns defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. Working against the Browns is a slew of injuries to their corners, including rookie sensation Denzel Ward (confirmed out) and Phillip Gaines (questionable). The Browns had already lost fellow corners Terrance Mitchell and EJ Gaines earlier in the year.
Where the Broncos truly have an advantage is running the football. UDFA rookie Phillip Lindsay is continuing his incredibly impressive rookie campaign, now at 967 yards on 167 carries (5.8 average) and 9 TDs. Lindsay has lead the Broncos to the 3rd best run offense and DVOA and are against a Browns run defense that ranks 26th.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns offense has mostly struggled this year, ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA and 20th running the ball. It helps that the Browns top wide out Jarvis Landry runs most of his routes out of the slot, and the Broncos will be without Chris Harris, who is consistently one of the top slot cornerbacks in football. On defense, the Broncos do expect to return CB Tramaine Brock and LB Brandon Marshall. The Broncos are 2nd overall in defensive DVOA and should provide difficulty for Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense.
Seattle @ San Francisco
Vegas: SF +3.5
DomModel: SF +9.076
Recommendation: SEA -3.5
-WR Doug Baldwin (hip) was INACTIVE week 14. He did not practice on Wednesday, then was limited Thursday and Friday. He is QUESTIONABLE.
-TE Will Dissly (knee) is out for the season after injuring it week 4.
-RB Rashaad Penny (knee) is OUT for week 15.
-RG D.J. Fluker (hamstring) was injured week 13. He was INACTIVE week 14. He is DOUBTFUL for week 15.
-LB K.J. Wright (knee) was INACTIVE weeks 11 – 14. He is OUT for week 15.
-S Earl Thomas (leg) is out for the season after injuring it week 4.
San Francisco 49ers:
-QB Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL. He’s out for the season.
-WR Pierre Garcon (knee) was placed on IR 12/10.
-WR Marquise Goodwin (calf) was limited in practice Thursday and Friday. He is QUESTIONABLE.
-RB Matt Breida (ankle) was INACTIVE for week 14. He was limited in practice all week and is QUESTIONABLE, but is expected to return.
-DE Cassius Marsh (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday, then was limited Thursday and Friday. He is QUESTIONABLE.
-LB Rueben Foster (jail) has been released by the 49ers.
-Slot CB K’Waun Williams (knee) was INACTIVE week 14. He did not practice on Wednesday, then was limited Thursday and Friday. He is QUESTIONABLE.
-FS/CB Jimmie Ward (broken forearm) was injured week 12. He is on IR.
-FS Adrian Colbert (high ankle sprain) was injured week 7 and is on IR (effective 10/22).
-S Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) was INACTIVE week 14. He is OUT week 15.
The Seahawks roll into this one on a 4 game winning streak with an offense that’s been surprisingly effective. The Seahawks rank 6th in both run and pass DVOA, and 10th overall. Their strength, as always, is QB Russell Wilson. Wilson is completing 65% of his passes with a remarkable 29:6 TD:INT ratio, and is always improvising and extending plays with his legs. Last week, WR Doug Baldwin was a true game time decision before being ruled inactive. Since he was so close to playing last week, there’s a solid shot he returns despite his questionable tag. Behind Baldwin is speedster Tyler Locket and inconsistent David Moore. With or without Baldwin, the Seahawks shouldn’t have a problem moving the ball against the 49ers pass “defense.” This is especially true considering the plethora of injuries to the 49ers secondary. On the ground, Rashaad Penny’s injury isn’t a concern at all. The Seahawks have handed the running game to Chris Carson, and Mike Davis has stepped up when needed.
On the other side, the 49ers offense sucks. QB Nick Mullens hopefully has a long career as a journeyman backup — that’s his ceiling. He’s dealt with constantly depleted weaponry, and now WR Pierre Garcon is done for the year. There’s also a chance WR Marquise Goodwin cannot play, just after the 49ers got him back. The only player worth noting is TE/freak athlete George Kittle. Kittle is already over 1,000 yards on the season. He continues to put up dominant numbers despite not having another dominant player around him.
That’s it for now, bitches. We’ll do better next week, I promise.
(I don’t promise)