Week 15 Recap: We Messed Up, And Paid For It

Image result for disappointed gif

By “messed up,” I really mean “got lazy.” Either way, it was a rough week at FirstAndThirty. I’ve stressed all year how important it is to get bets in early. Both of us have busy lives, making it difficult to look into the games in the detail that we want to early in the week. This week, we didn’t get our bets in till Saturday.

Lines moving toward the model is one of the signals that the process is working. I spend many a Sundays crushing mimosas and looking at line movements on our bets. I’m almost always saying, “god damn, glad we got this bet in early. Also, this mimosa is delicious.” This isn’t to say that lines ALWAYS move toward the model — they clearly don’t. When Saturday rolled around, we had only two bets that we could still take. We were therefore forced to take bets that ONLY moved away from the model.

And we paid for it.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still happy with both bets. I still trust the model over line movements. I just prefer when our picks also move toward the model is all. Anyway, onto the games.

Cleveland @ Denver (-2.5)
Vegas: DEN -2.5
DomModel: DEN – 10.925
Recommendation: DEN -2.5
Analysis

This game flow was relatively even matched – it was tied at the half and the Broncos were up 3 heading into the 4th quarter. The difference was a 4th quarter touchdown drive from the Browns that started with a Nick Chubb 40 yard run. The Broncos answered with a field goal, which wasn’t enough.

I explained in the analysis blog that the Broncos passing attack would likely struggle against the Browns secondary, and it did. Keenum averaged a measly 5.4 yards per attempt and threw 2 picks with 0 touchdowns. The big surprise, however, was the lack of production the Broncos got out of Phillip Lindsay — Lindsay gained just 1.4 yards per carry and was painfully ineffective against a Browns defense that ranked 26th in run defense DVOA going in. Outside of the 40 yard Chubb scramble, the Broncos certainly played well enough on defense to win — they just couldn’t get it done offensively.

Final score: Cleveland 17, Denver 16

Seattle (-3.5) @ San Francisco
Vegas: SF +3.5
DomModel: SF +9.076
Recommendation: SEA -3.5
Analysis

This one got me giddy to start. After forcing a 3 and out, the Seahawks marched down the field, capping off the drive with a Doug Baldwin touchdown. 7-0 early.

Then the 49ers immediately took the ensuing kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. And the tilt was on.

The next scoring play was Nick Mullens completing a 41 yard touchdown pass to Garrett freakin Celek. Luckily, the Seahawks answered with a touchdown of their own (another Doug Baldwin reception), but San Francisco came back with a field goal, putting them up 17-14 at the half.

In the 2nd half, the Seahawks simply didn’t do enough offensively. They scored in additional 10 points — all in the 4th quarter — which was good enough to send the game to OT. Once we’re in OT, being a 3.5 point favorite puts you in a really tough spot. You can only win with a Seahawks touchdown. The game ended with a 49ers field goal, giving San Fran the outright win and us another loss.

Fucker.

Final score: San Francisco 26, Seattle 23 (OT)

YTD Results: 24-23-1 (51%)
Week 1: 1-2-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 3-0
Week 4: 1-1
Week 5: 0-3
Week 6: 2-1
Week 7: 1-2
Week 8: 2-1
Week 9: 3-2
Week 10: 1-2
Week 11: 3-0
Week 12: 2-1
Week 13: 2-1
Week 14: 1-3
Week 15: 0-2

That’s it for now, bitches.

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