Official Super Bowl Recommendation

Image result for super bowl
These logs kinda fucking suck, right?

The day has arrived. It is officially time to make our Super Bowl pick. Depending on the book you checked, the line either opened at a pick em or the Rams as a slight favorite. However, the public immediately hammered the Patriots and the line shifted swiftly to New England -2.5. Our model thinks Vegas had it right at the opening line, and the public is wrong. Here’s our numbers, which can be seen on the DomModel page.

NE @ LAR02/03 6:30 PM
Model:-0.004
Vegas:2.5
Differential:-2.504
Wager:LAR 2.5

0.004! That’s absurd. The model likely couldn’t find two teams that are more evenly matched.

Once the line hit 2.5 we went into waiting mode. I figured there was a slight chance it would make it to 3 — some books were showing -2.5 – 120. Meanwhile, the money that came in on New England early made it unlikely we would see any significant swing toward the Rams side. Going from 2.5 to 3 would be huge, but going from 2.5 to 2 would be whatever. It was worth waiting.

But fellas, the waiting is over. It’s officially Sunday, and it’s time to make our pick: we like the Rams.

Courtesy of https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/

The Vegas consensus for the spread is -2.5, and +115 for the moneyline. As you can see from the above chart, the dog odds should sit at +109.7 for a 2.5 spread. Therefore, our recommendation is LAR +115.

If you would like a breakdown of the game, I would suggest going here.

I hope you all enjoy what should be an awesome fucking game. Now get out there and win some money.

See you on the other side, bitches.

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