The day has arrived. It is officially time to make our Super Bowl pick. Depending on the book you checked, the line either opened at a pick em or the Rams as a slight favorite. However, the public immediately hammered the Patriots and the line shifted swiftly to New England -2.5. Our model thinks Vegas had it right at the opening line, and the public is wrong. Here’s our numbers, which can be seen on the DomModel page.
| NE @ LAR | 02/03 6:30 PM |
| Model: | -0.004 |
| Vegas: | 2.5 |
| Differential: | -2.504 |
| Wager: | LAR 2.5 |
0.004! That’s absurd. The model likely couldn’t find two teams that are more evenly matched.
Once the line hit 2.5 we went into waiting mode. I figured there was a slight chance it would make it to 3 — some books were showing -2.5 – 120. Meanwhile, the money that came in on New England early made it unlikely we would see any significant swing toward the Rams side. Going from 2.5 to 3 would be huge, but going from 2.5 to 2 would be whatever. It was worth waiting.
But fellas, the waiting is over. It’s officially Sunday, and it’s time to make our pick: we like the Rams.
The Vegas consensus for the spread is -2.5, and +115 for the moneyline. As you can see from the above chart, the dog odds should sit at +109.7 for a 2.5 spread. Therefore, our recommendation is LAR +115.
If you would like a breakdown of the game, I would suggest going here.
I hope you all enjoy what should be an awesome fucking game. Now get out there and win some money.
See you on the other side, bitches.
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