Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results don’t matter, but we want to track how we did and keep up to date stats, so we’ll use this space to see what happened. It’s always interesting to look at both your wins and loses and see what happened in the game — some bad calls or injuries to your team can sway things massively.
I knew the season would have its ups and downs, it’s the life of a gambler. Dealing with those swings is, in my fucked up view, part of the fun. But even still, going 4-0 week 1 then immediately going 0-3 the next week is a wild ride even for me. Let’s relive my nightmare:
Dallas @ Washington
Recommendation: WAS +5
Cover Probability: 54.97%
Cover Edge: 4.94%
After a series of punts, Dak Prescott attempted a deep pass to Randall Cobb — a throw that was probably about 4 years too late — and it was intercepted by safety Montae Nicholson. Case Keenum then lead the skins offense on a 10-play drive that resulted in an Adrian Peterson touchdown.
After that, it was all Dak Prescott. He lead 3 consecutive touchdown drives to end the first half and start the second, and suddenly the Cowboys were up 21-7. Dallas simply went into clock killing mode, and the Skins defense was powerless to stop them. Game over.
Final score: Dallas 31, Washington 21
Arizona @ Baltimore
Recommendation: BAL -13.5
Cover Probability: 58.14%
Cover Edge: 10.99%
If you looked at the box score and watched this game, you’d probably think we covered. Lamar Jackson was 24/37 (65%) for 272 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 picks. He ran for another 120. Mark Andrews threw up a 8/112/1 line. David Johnson got hurt. The game never really felt all that close.
….but 13.5 is a lottttttttttttt of points. Shit.
Final score: Baltimore 23, Arizona 17
Kansas City @ Oakland
Recommendation: OAK +8
Cover Probability: 59.38%
Cover Edge: 13.36%
This was a disaster. The Chiefs dominated. I don’t want to talk about it. Thankfully it looks like the model learned it’s lesson and is going back to the Chiefs this week, because I can’t take rooting for any team that’s playing Patrick Mahomes.
Final score: Kansas City 28, Oakland 10
2019 YTD: 4-3
Week 2: 0-3
Week 1: 4-0
That’s it for now, bitches.
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