Week 3 Recap: The Tilt is Real

Image result for jimmy garoppolo

Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results don’t matter, but we want to track how we did and keep up to date stats, so we’ll use this space to see what happened. It’s always interesting to look at both your wins and loses and see what happened in the game — some bad calls or injuries to your team can sway things massively. Let’s get into it.

Miami (+21) @ Dallas
Recommendation: MIA +21
Cover Probability: 69.72%
Cover Edge: 33.09

We could only find 3 instances of 20+ point spreads in the last 3,000 games. There were two this week, and we were on them both.

This game started out well enough for us — Miami was down 10-6 toward the end of the half and was putting a drive together. Then Kenyan goddamn Drake fumbled at the Dallas 7. But still, we had 21 points to work with and the Dolphins were only down 4 at the half.

The second half was a different story. In the first, the Dolphins were able to put pressure on Dak Prescott and force him off his throws. In the 2nd, they had nothing. Dallas scored 21 unanswered in the second half, and that’s all she wrote.

Final score: Dallas 31, Miami 6

NY Jets (+22.5) @ New England
Recommendation: NYJ +22.5
Cover Probability: 60.18%
Cover Edge: 14.88%

We got some (I guess?) fortunate news bounce our way before this one, as the Patriots had decided to part ways with WR Antonio Brown. That moved the spread all the way from 22.5 to 21.5. Value town, population us.

As was predicted, this one was all Patriots. We ended up getting saved by a muffed punt that the Jets returned for 6. Once the game was out of hand, the Patriots brought in backup QB Jarrett Stidham, and he immediately threw a pick 6. The favorite bringing in backups is a nice out for when you have these massive dogs. We’ll take it.

Final score: New England 30, NY Jets 14

Baltimore @ Kansas City (-6.5)
Recommendation: KC -6.5
Cover Probability: 57.23%
Cover Edge: 9.26%

It definitely seemed like we had this one in the bag. Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs put up 23 points in the 1st half to go up 23-6. In the 3rd, both teams traded touchdowns to make it 30-13. Ok, still in solid shape..

…then Baltimore put up 15 in the 4th.

The nail in the coffin came on a 9 play, 70 yard TD drive from Baltimore that took 2:35 off the clock. The Chiefs were still wining, so that effectively ended the game. That god damn Chiefs defense.

Final score: Kansas City 33, Baltimore 28

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco (-6.5)
Recommendation: SF -6.5
Cover Probability: 56.38%
Cover Edge: 7.63%

Our last game was Jimmy Jaw Line vs Mason Rudolph. The 49ers defense was able to stop Rudolph from getting anything going, as Rudolph averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt and threw an INT. The problem was the 49ers offense wasn’t too impressive either. They ended up fumbling 3 times and Jimmy was picked off. It’s tough to put up enough points to cover a 6.5 point spread when you play like that. Oh well.

Final score: San Francisco 24, Pittsburgh 20

2019 YTD: 5-6
Week 3: The Tilt is Real (1-3)
Week 2: Is 0-3 bad? (0-3)
Week 1: Is 4-0 bad? (4-0)

That’s it for now, bitches.

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