Washington @ Miami
Recommended bet: WAS -3.5
Cover Probability: 61.09%
Cover Edge: 16.62%
Who fucking cares? Do you actually care? I have both teams updated here if you really care. I won’t even bother copy and and pasting. That’s how little I care.
The line opened at 6.5 and was quickly bet down to 3.5, which is where it stands as of writing (Thursday morning).
You know what, no. Fuck this. No.
Look, I get it. The model isn’t a human being. It’s out there relentlessly looking for an edge in every game the book will offer. It doesn’t care if we’re betting on the ’85 Bears or the Bad News Bears. I joke around all the time that I’m a slave to the model — I’ll write about any game it chooses. But this is where I draw the fucking line.
I write this blog because I think it’s good to understand exactly who you’re betting on and who you’re betting against. This level of analysis is also part of our process that leads to us actually betting games, so I want to get my thoughts in writing. But I can’t bring myself to do this. I just can’t. Both teams are beyond garbage. The Miami Dolphins have a DVOA of minus fucking 90. Through 5 weeks! The Bengals are the second worst at -39.9%, and the Redskins are 29th at -32.3%. That should give you an idea of just how bad the Dolphins are. Yes, we’re recommending you take the Redskins. Yes, I bet them myself. But I’m not talking about this garbage, trash heap that the NFL is hilariously trying to label a “football game.” Don’t watch it, just check the box score when it’s all over to see if you’ve won.
Out of respect to the players who are actually decent, I’ll call out a few guys instead:
-Dolphins WR Preston Williams has targets of 7, 10, and 7 in his last 3 games. Not bad!
-Redskins DT Daron Payne has been a menace against the run. His 8 run stops ranks 13th in the league. Doesn’t suck!
-Redskins CB Quinton Dunbar is allowing a 46.7 QB Rating when targeted. Actually good!
-Redskins WR Terry McLaurin is having a solid rookie season. His 308 receiving yards in 4 games is on pace for 1,232 for a 16 game season. That includes a game where he was shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. Atta boy!
I’m done. That’s it for now, bitches.