Breakdown: Week 7 Recommendations (Part 1)

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This is coming in way late because I was in Vegas this week, so I’m doing an abbreviated version of our recommendations. We have four bets this week, so I’ll break it into two parts. This is part one. Let’s get into it:

Miami @ Buffalo
Recommended Bet: MIA +17
Cover Probability: 60.37%
Cover Edge: 15.25%

Key Injuries:
Miami Dolphins: (Week 5 bye)
-WR Jakeem Grant (hamstring) was injured week 4 and was INACTIVE week 6. He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited in practice all week.
-C Daniel Kilgore (knee) will not play week 7.
-DE Avery Moss (concussion/ankle) was injured week 6. He will not play week 7.
-CB Xavien Howard (knee) was INACTIVE week 6. He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited in practice all week.
-CB Ken Webster (leg) was injured week 6.

Buffalo Bills: (Week 6 bye)
-RB Devin Singletary (hamstring) was injured week 2 and INACTIVE weeks 3 – 5. He will return week 7.
-TE Tyler Kroft (foot) was INACTIVE weeks 1 – 5. He will return week 7.
-LB Matt Milano (hamstring) is QUESTIONABLE for week 7 after being limited in practice all week.
-CB Taron Johnson (hamstring) was injured week 1 and INACTIVE weeks 2 Р5. He is QUESTIONABLE, but practiced in full all week.

Breakdown:
That’s right, bitches. We’re betting on the motherfucking Dolphins. Sue me.

This line hasn’t had a ton of movement on it, as it’s basically bounced around between 17 and 16.5. The current consensus sits at 17, which is where the model grabbed it when we ran it Wednesday night.

We all know the story with the Dolphins. They are easily the worst team in the NFL, and perhaps the worst in the 21st century. There’s really not much positive to say about a single player on their roster. The only thing noteworthy that’s going on with the Dolphins is their starting QB is yet again changing, as we’ll see Ryan Fitzpatrick start this one. It really does’t matter, but figured you should at least know who is playing QB.

The Bills have a lot of similarities to last years team, where they were very good on defense but are dog shit on offense. Josh Allen is completing just 62.6% of his passes with more INTs (7) than touchdowns (5). Their offensive line has been below average, and the only two competent receivers have been John Brown and Cole Beasley. On defense, they’ve been exceptional in coverage and rushing the passer. You have to think the model naturally sees that the Dolphins aren’t going to score many points, but is questioning if the Bills terrible offense has enough fire power to keep up with a massive 17 point spread.

Los Angeles @ Atlanta
Recommended Bet: LAR -3
Cover Probability: 55.38%
Cover Edge: 5.72%

Key Injuries:
Los Angeles Rams: (Week 9 bye)
-RB Todd Gurley (quad) was INACTIVE week 6. He will play week 7.
-LG Joe Noteboom (torn ACL/MCL) was injured week 6 and is on IR.
-LB Clay Matthews (jaw) was injured week 5 and INACTIVE week 6. He will not play week 7.
-CB Aqib Talib (ribs) was placed on IR (return designation) after week 6.
-CB Jalen Ramsey (back) will play week 7.
-S John Johnson (shoulder) was injured week 6 and is on IR.

Atlanta Falcons: (Week 9 bye)
-RG Chris Lindstrom (foot) was injured week 1 and will miss at least 8 weeks.
-CB Desmond Trufant (toe) was INACTIVE week 6. He will not play this week.
-S Keanu Neal (torn ACL) was injured week 3 and is out for the year.

Breakdown:
This line opened at 4, was quickly bet down to 3, and has stayed there ever since.

The Rams offense has not been the same as it was in 2018. The biggest change I’ve noticed is the offensive line, which was one of the best in football last year but has been brutally bad this year. It likely has a bigger impact on QB Jared Goff than other line situations, since Goff routinely struggles under pressure but puts up great numbers from a clean pocket. Therefore, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Goff has struggled this year — he’s completing just 62.2% of his passes and has a QB rating of 80.8. What saves the Rams offense is the skilled positions — Cooper Kupp in particular has been fantastic, he’s currently tied for the lead league in targets with Michael Thomas (at 66). He’s caught 45 of those passes for 522 yards and 4 touchdowns. Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Todd Gurley (who will play) are naturally no slouches themselves.

On defense, the Rams front 7 has been solid. They play well against the run and can get after the quarterdeck (they have this guy named Aaron Donald who is kinda good), but they’ve struggled in coverage. Then they lost Aqib Talib for the year, traded Marcus Peters to the Ravens, and brought in Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey was battling a back problem that mysteriously disappeared as soon as he was traded to LA, and he should play in this one. He’s one of the more talented corners in the game who should help the struggling secondary out immensely.

The Falcons on offense have some similarities to the Rams, where their line and QB hasn’t been that great, but their receivers are unreal. Granted, Matt Ryan is having a much better year than Goff, but he hasn’t quite been his normal, dominant self. Though Ryan’s raw stats are through the roof, PFF’s “big time throw” stat tells us that Ryan is mostly taking what’s given to him and isn’t creating a ton of offense by himself. Per usual, Julio Jones is their leading receiver with 34 catches, 467 yards, and 4 touchdowns. The biggest surprise has been the emergence of TE Austin Hooper as a receiving threat, who is currently second behind Travis Kelce in receiving yards for tight ends.

Their defense is another sad, sad story. They rank 29th in DVOA, with a pass defense DVOA of 31st (keep in mind this is a league that includes the Dolphins, who are obviously last). Their secondary will take an even bigger hit in this one without Desmond Trufant. Let’s hope the Rams can take advantage.

That’s it for now, bitches

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