Breakdown: Week 7 Recommendations (Part 2)

Image result for teddy bridgewater

This is coming in way late because I was in Vegas this week, so I’m doing an abbreviated version of our recommendations. We have four bets this week, so I’ll break it into two parts. Part one is here. Let’s get into it:

New Orleans @ Chicago
Wager: NO +3
Cover Probability: 53.70%
Cover Edge: 2.52%

Key Injuries:
New Orleans Saints: (Week 9 bye)
-QB Drew Brees (thumb) was injured week 2 and is on IR (return designation).
-WR Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) was INACTIVE week 6. He will not play week 7.
-TE Jared Cook (ankle) will not play week 7.
-RB Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) will not play week 7.
-DE Trey Hendrickson (neck) was injured week 4 and INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday.

Chicago Bears: (Week 6 bye)
-QB Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) was injured week 4 and INACTIVE week 5. He is QUESTIONABLE week 7, but practiced in full all week and is expected to play.
-WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion) was INACTIVE weeks 4 and 5. He will return week 7.
-RG Kyle Long (hip) was injured week 5 and is on IR.
-RG Ted Larsen (knee) was INACTIVE week 5. He is QUESTIONABLE for week 7, but practiced in full on Friday.
-DT Akiem Hicks (elbow) was injured week 5. He is on IR.
-DT Bilal Nichols (hand) was injured week 2 and INACTIVE weeks 3 – 5. He is QUESTIONABLE for week 7 after practicing in full Wednesday and Thursday, but limited on Friday.

Breakdown:
The line opened at 3, was quickly bet up to 4, moved to 3, and is now back to 4.

The Saints offense has actually played decently well without Drew Brees. Their offensive line is solid (particularly in pass protection) and HC Sean Payton has done a great job managing Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy has turned into the ultimate dink and dunk quarterback – his 5.8 average depth of targets is lower than anybody else in the league not named Luke Falk. Even still, he’s completing 69.4% of his passes with 7 TDs and just 2 picks. Bridgewater is light years away from Brees, but he’s doing what’s asked of him. He’s primarily relied on Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara as his top two targets, but unfortunately Kamara won’t play in this one. In his place will be veteran Latavius Murray. Though I’m very much subscribing to the ideas that individual running backs place very little importance on the game, Kamara’s involvement in the passing game makes him a massive loss.

On defense, the Saints have a solid front 7 with holes in the secondary. Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan are one of the better pass rushing duos in all of football, and Demario Davis and Sheldon Rankins are solid interior guys. In the secondary, Mashon Lattimore is being used to shadow top receivers (he’ll shadow Allen Robinson in this one), but his performances have been very up and down.

The Bears on offense will return QB Mitch Tribusky — he’s been out since week 4 with a shoulder injury. That’s probably good news for our bet, since Tribusky has been one of the worst QBs in football. He’s completing 65.1% of his passes with a minuscule 5.5 YPA. His PFF grade of 45.8 is second worst in the league behind Jets third stringer Luke Falk. They really don’t have any receiving threats outside of Allen Robinson and RB Tarik Cohen, and their running game hasn’t been impressive at all. It’s just a flat out bad offense.

The defense is another story. Widely considered the best defense in the league last year, the Bears have kicked regression in this face this year as they’ve returned to top form. Khalil Mack remains one of the best pass rushers in all of football, and the Bears have a number of other solid options in the front 7 to help both rushing the passer and stopping the run. The secondary is anchored by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Eddie Jackson at safety, with solid coverage coming from Prince Amukamara and Kendall Fuller at corner. Teams typically don’t have much luck scoring on these guys.

LA Chargers @ Tennessee
Wager: LAC +2
Cover Probability: 53.66%
Cover Edge: 2.45%

Key Injuries:
Los Angeles Chargers: (Week 12 bye)
-LT Russell Okung (illness) has been placed on the Non-Football Injury List to start the season.
-DE Melvin Ingram III (hamstring) is DOUBTFUL for week 7.
-DT Justin Jones (shoulder) will not play week 7.
-NT Brandon Mebane (knee) will not play week 7.
-CB Trevor Williams (quad) is on IR.
-S Derwin James (foot) is on IR.
-S Adrian Phillips (forearm) was injured week 2 and on IR.

Tennessee Titans: (Week 11 bye)
-TE Delanie Walker (ankle) was QUESTIONABLE for week 7. He was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but did not practice on Friday.
-ED Cameron Wake (hamstring) was injured week 4 and INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He is QUESTIONABLE for week 7 after getting in limited sessions Thursday and Friday.
-LB Jayon Brown (groin) was injured week 6. He is DOUBTFUL for week 7.
-LB Sharif Finch (shoulder) was injured week 5 and is OUT for week 7.
-LB Reggie Gilbert (knee) is QUESTIONABLE for week 7. He showed up on the injury report Friday as limited.
-K Ryan Succop is on season-ending IR.

Breakdown:
The line opened at Tennessee -1, then settled at -2 until Thursday night, where it shifted to 2.5.

The Chargers enjoy an above average offense that is capable of doing damage when they run hot. Phillip Rivers is having another solid season –he’s completing 66.8% of his passes and averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. He has had issues with turnover worthy plays, and that’s evident by his 6 interceptions. His primary option will be Keenan Allen, but it’s significant that TE Hunter Henry returned last week and racked up over 100 receiving yards. Rivers will also look to Mike Williams and either of his running backs (Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler) depending on who is on the field.

The defense, on the other hand, is below average. They’re particularly bad in coverage — they lost both of their starting safeties already, and all that’s left is CB Casey Hayward. Their linebackers are also well below average, as the Chargers are one of the worst tackling teams in football. The only saving grace is their pass rush, but they’ll be without DE Melvin Ingram. It’s a defense that can be picked one.

The Titans are the exact opposite, where their offense is currently a fuck show and their defense has been solid. The Titans made the decision to bench struggling QB Marcus Mariota, and that bring Ryan Tannehill in as their starter — and you probably don’t need me to tell you that Tannehill is flat out bad. Their receivers struggle to get open, and their running game hasn’t been great either. Currently, the only thing they have going is their pass blocking abilities, but that isn’t winning games by itself.

On defense, the Titans are lead by a very impressive secondary. Kevin Byard has been one of the better safties in football, and Adoree’ Jackson, Malcom Butler, and Logan Ryan have all played well at corner. Their front 7 is solid against the run. They struggle to generate pressure against the quarterback, but when your secondary is playing well, you can get away with it.

Anyway, that’s it for the 4 games we’re recommending this week. I’ll get in next week with more in depth breakdowns since I won’t be in Vegas being a total degenerate. See you then.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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