Week 8 Recap: Betting Crap Teams Pays Off, Apparently

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Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results don’t matter, but we want to track how we did and keep up to date stats, so we’ll use this space to see what happened. It’s always interesting to look at both your wins and loses and see what happened in the game — some bad calls or injuries to your team can sway things massively.

This week we ended up with two bets — coincidentally (or not?) they were taking the two worst teams in the league with the points. The model backed the Dolphins for the second week in a row, and for the second week in a row those gritty tanking fuckers covered. We also went after the Redskins on Thursday night, and that one hit as well. Let’s take a look at the games.

Washington @ Minnesota
Recommended Bet: WAS +16
Cover Probability: 53.68%
Cover Edge: 2.48%

We started off Thursday with a relatively sweat free cover. The Vikings ended up winning with ease, but the Redskins were able to keep it close enough where I was never nervous about the 16 point cover. Despite old man Peterson’s bad ankle, the Vikings had a difficult time taking down the Redskins running back. AP ended up averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and that helped the Redskins control the clock. Case Keenum was also able to pick on former dominant Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes.

The Vikings were without WR Adam Thielen, leaving them with WR Stefon Diggs and RB Dalvin Cook as their only competent skill players. Both went off — Diggs for 7 catches and 143 yards, and Cook for 98 yards rushing and a touchdown along with 5 catches for 73 yards. That ended up being more than enough to avoid an embarrassing Thursday night loss.

Final score: Minnesota 19, Washington 9

Miami @ Pittsburgh
Wager: MIA +14.5
Cover Probability: 55.15%
Cover Edge: 5.29%

Did anyone watch this game? I did not. I couldn’t bring myself to watch the Monday Night fuck show that was Big Ben’s backups vs the tanking Dolphins. Instead, I was updating the injury news at this wonderful website: http://www.firstandthirty.com. I essentially treated this like a basketball game, tuning in for the final two minutes just to make sure we covered.

The Dolphins did jump out to a 14-0 lead, then not only blew the game, but almost blew the spread too. Classic Miami. We were actually somewhat saved by an early whistle on the final play that could have lead to a Pittsburgh touchdown. Oh well, a win is a win.

Can the god damn model please stop taking the Dolphins so I can go back to pretending like they aren’t in the NFL? Please and thanks.

Final score: Pittsburgh 27, Miami 14

2019 YTD: 13 – 10 (56.5%)
Week 8: Betting Crap Teams Pays Off, Apparently (2-0)
Week 7: The Chargers Killed Our Perfect Week (3-1)
Week 6: The Money Train Has Been Temporarily Derailed (0-2)
Week 5: Back on Track (2-0)
Week 4: I hate Kellen Moore (1-1)
Week 3: The Tilt is Real (1-3)
Week 2: Is 0-3 bad? (0-3)
Week 1: Is 4-0 bad? (4-0)

That’s it for now, bitches.

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