As usual, we released the model results for every single game this week on Wednesday night. However, for the first time this year, the model hates every game.
I’m not even exaggerating. The only game that actually has an edge over Vegas is the Chiefs -4 over the Titans, and that edge is at a minuscule 0.02%. We typically like to look for edges that are at least 2%, so this naturally isn’t anywhere near that threshold. You could potentially make the argument that the model is a bit underweight on the Chiefs, since Pat Mahomes should be back this week, and 2.5 Matt Moore games are in the Chiefs stats this season. However, I think it’s important to note that the Chiefs offense was still actually really damn good with Matt Moore under center. Here are the offensive DVOAs in the Matt Moore games:
Week 7: 3.6%**
Week 8: 28.1%
Week 9: 17.8%
**Mahomes played 20 snaps in week 7. Matt Moore played 41.
As a reminder, 0% is average for DVOA. In the week 7 game, the Chiefs offense was just above average. But in both Matt Moore games, the Chiefs offense was still fantastic. Please don’t get me wrong here — I’m not at all suggesting that Pat Mahomes doesn’t matter. If you read this site, you know damn well that I have a massive football boner for the dude. I’m merely pointing out that the Chiefs offense was still really freakin good under Moore, so those 2.5 games really aren’t bringing down the Chiefs offensive stats by much at all.
So what else is there? The model states there’s a negative expectation on literally every other game. In fact, it gives a 50% cover probability to 6/13 games — essentially stating that if you bet that game, you can take either side and you’re just flipping coins with the bookie and paying a vig to do it. No thanks.
You should also keep in mind that the model is working strictly off of the Vegas consensus. Though shopping around to find the best line is highly recommended, we don’t want to post recommendations that are available at a single book for all of 30 seconds. We want to give recommendations that can be taken at various points of the week. It’s recommended that you check the model against what your book is offering, and maybe something might exist for you that isn’t available when looking at the consensus.
We could look for Wong teaser opportunities (Dom has a more detailed post explaining the math here), which states that we should be teasing spreads between +1.5 and +2.5, or -7.5 and -8.5. Unfortunately, none of those exist either.
Alas, we are stuck with nothing to bet on. It’s worth pointing out that there are 6 teams on bye this week, which is the most of any week. That leaves us with fewer options. If this was going to happen, it would makes sense that it would happen on week 10. It’s also a reminder that betting spreads in the NFL is fucking hard. Value doesn’t grow on trees, and it’s important that you pick your spots wisely. In the future we’ll hopefully get something figured out for totals and moneylines, which would lead to more possibilities, but until then, we got nada. In the meantime, I’ll keep the injury page updated if you’re into that sort of thing. If not, we’ll see you next week.
That’s it for now, bitches.