Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Recommended Bet: BUF -5.5
Cover Probability: 57.81%
Cover Edge: 10.36%
Buffalo Bills: (Week 6 bye)
Miami Dolphins: (Week 5 bye)
-RB Mark Walton (suspension) will not play weeks 10 – 14.
-DE Avery Moss (concussion/ankle) was INACTIVE weeks 7 – 10. He was limited on Wednesday and practiced in full on Thursday.
-CB Ken Webster (ankle) was INACTIVE weeks 9 and 10. He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
-S Reshad Jones (chest) was INACTIVE weeks 7 – 10. He was limited on Wednesday and practiced in full on Thursday.
IR: WR Preston Williams (knee)
Spread Breakdown: The line opened at 7.5 on Sunday, but was quickly bet down to 5.5 on Monday, which is where the model grabbed it Tuesday night. It’s since been bet back up to 6.5. I hope you got your bets in early!
The model has a weird Dolphins obsession: This will be the 7th time we recommend a Dolphins game, picking the Dolphins to cover in 3 of them and their opponents to cover in 4. We’re currently 4-2 in said games. The #MiamiTracker will be updated as the season progresses.
When Buffalo has the ball
The Bills offense isn’t anything special. Their sitting at 25th in DVOA rankings, with splits of 28 as a passing offense and 7th at rushing. Like any bad passing offense, their problems start with the quarterback. Josh Allen is completing an abysmal 59.9% of his passes with 6.8 YPA, 10 TDs, and 7 picks. His PFF grade is a 40, and his DVOA is a -23.0%. Folks, those stats are #bad.
And it’s really not as if the pieces around him are that bad. Their offensive line ranks 7th in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency metric, and their weapons are.. well, they’re fine. John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Isiah McKenzie certainly aren’t the most talented receivers in the world, but a good QB could certainly win with them. John Brown has been targeted 71 times on the season and has hauled in 47 of them. That’s pretty damn impressive considering his aDOT (average depth of target) is a 14.46. He’s quite literally the perfect receiver for someone like Josh Allen who likes to chuck it deep, but Allen simply isn’t getting it done. On the ground, the Bills have been giving most snaps to rookie Devin Singletary, with Frank Gore (now in his 40th NFL season) getting work as well. Allen, to his credit, is a bit of a beast on the ground. He ranks 4th among all QBs in rushing yards and 1st in touchdowns with 6.
They’ll be facing a Dolphins defense that is a fuck show to end all fuck shows, though they’ve impressively climbed up the defensive DVOA rankings, now sitting at 31st. They’re ranked 30th against the pass and 30th against the run. In the beginning of the year they belonged in another league, now they’re just like the other really, really shitty defenses. Good for them. As for the players themselves, their leading pass rusher is some guy named Vince Biegel, who has 26 pressures and 2 sacks this year. Their interior guys and linebackers struggle against the run, and their corners and safeties are a collection of wet blankets. Ryan Lewis, who is still starting at cornerback, has a PFF coverage grade of 32.5 and is allowing a 116.1 QB rating when targeted.
When Miami has the ball:
The Dolphins offense is a lot like their defense, in that they suck and have zero redeeming qualities. They’re going to continue to roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick, because why not. Fitzmagic is rocking a 61.5% completion percentage, 6.6 yards per attempt, 8 TDs, and 8 picks. You can probably make a very sad argument that he’s the best quarterback in this matchup, but the important part of Fitzpatrick’s game is his lack of consistency. He’s just as capable of putting up a game with 5.1 yards per attempt, 169 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 pick (as he did last week) as he is a game with a 8.0 yards per attempt, 288 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 picks (as he did the week before). Hopefully we get the shitty Fitzpatrick. As you’ll fine out shorty, he’s going to have his work cut out for him.
Unfortunately for Fitzpatrick (and fortunately for us), he has nothing to work with. In the year of the shitty offensive line, the Dolphins are arguably the worst. Their best receiver (Preston Williams) is now on IR, leaving guys like Allen Hurns, Albert Wilson, and DeVante Parker as the top options. On the ground, the Dolphins traded away their best running back (Kenyan Drake) at the deadline. The next man up, Mark Walton, is suspended. That leaves Kalen Ballage, who averages 2.1 yards per attempt.
The Bills defense is currently sitting at 13th in DVOA, but with ranks of 9 against the pass and 27th against the run. Since this is a pass first league and the Bills have to stop Kalen freakin Ballage on the ground, I’d much prefer those splits. They have a solid pass rush, which is lead by Jerry Hughes (29 pressures), Lorenzo Alexander (19 pressures), and Trent Murphy (17). In coverage, CB Tre’Davious White is one of the top corners in football, and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are one of the better safety tandems in the league. It’s easy to see why they’ve had so much success defensing the pass. For their run defense, I’ll just trust that they have enough to stop the Dolphins.
Here’s to an easy cover. That’s it for now, bitches.