Unfortunately, it looks like the model is underwhelmed by the value on this weeks slate of games.
The top option is the Lions -3.5 over the Redskins, which has a pretty slim 1.23% cover edge. I’m recommending we fade the model here, since Lions QB Matt Stafford won’t be playing. The Lions offense has been pretty damn impressive this year — they rank 6th in passing DVOA — so taking away a the biggest contributor to the strength of the Lions team needs to be a major adjustment.
The rest of the games all have a negative edge — meaning the model isn’t confident enough to overcome a -110 vig. We do still look at each game to see if any major adjustments are needed, and I just can’t find any on the teams the model is recommending or fading. We’re also, as usual, looking for any recommendations that are within Wong teaser range. Alas, there are none.
You may have also noticed we’ve included totals in the model. This is definitely still beta testing and we’re not recommending any of those unless the model throws a significant edge. Since there isn’t anything above a 1.5% edge, we’re fading that.
We’ll try again next week.
That’s it for now, bitches.