Breakdown: Philadelphia (-9.5) @ Miami

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Philadelphia @ Miami
Wager: PHI -9.5
Cover Probability: 56.00%
Cover Edge: 6.92%

Key Injuries:
Philadelphia Eagles: (Week 10 bye)
-WR Alshon Jeffrey (ankle) was INACTIVE weeks 11 and 12. He will return week 13.
-WR Nelson Agholor (knee) was INACTIVE week 12. He will return week 13.
-TE Zach Ertz (hamstring) is QUESTIONABLE. He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and was limited on Friday. He wasn’t injured at all last week, so the source of the injury is a mystery at the moment. He’s considered more likely to play than not.
-RB Jordan Howard (shoulder) was INACTIVE weeks 11 and 12. He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited all week.
-RT Lane Johnson (concussion) was injured week 11 and INACTIVE week 12. He will return this week.
IR: WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen), RB Darren Sproles quad), DT Malik Jackson (foot)

Miami Dolphins: (Week 5 bye)
-WR Albert Wilson (rib) was injured week 12. He will play this week.
-CB Ken Webster (ankle) was INACTIVE weeks 9 – 12. He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited Wednesday and Thursday, but practiced in full on Friday.
-CB Ken Crawley (shoulder) was injured week 12. He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited in practice all week.
-S Steven Parker (groin) is QUESTIONABLE after being limited in practice all week.
IR: WR Preston Williams (knee)

#MiamiTracker Update: This is the 8th week we’ve picked the Dolphins. We’re currently 5-2 in those games.

Dom and I were chatting further about this recently — we spend so much time talking about the Dolphins I worry about it’s impact on our mental health. We think it makes perfect sense that the betting markets would be very good at pricing games with teams that have a ton of data on them, but might struggle with a team that actively traded away all of their best players. As such, Dolphins games are routinely mispriced and that’s why the model is pouncing. The model has no idea that it’s picked the Dolphins as much as it has, so it truly is going after their games in a vacuum.

Spread Breakdown: The line opened at 7.5 and was bet up to 9.5 pretty quickly. It’s since been bouncing back and forth between 9.5 and 10. Get it at 9.5 if you can (and, as always, get your damn bets in early).

Matchup Breakdown:
Normally in this section I’ll take a look at each teams offense vs the other teams defense. I’m changing that up a bit because I’m sick on writing about the Dolphins, and if you read this column regularly you’re sick of reading about them. If you’re new and want Dolphins content, get help. But you can also check out here or here or here or here or here for said content. The brief update is this: though the public may feel like the winless Bengals are worse than the 2-win Dolphins, DVOA is telling us that it’s still the Dolphins that are the worst team in football.

Philadelphia Eagles:
The Eagles, on the other hand, actually aren’t a joke. They’re sitting at 9th in the DVOA standings. At 5-6, a win will pull them even with the 6-6 Cowboys for first place in the NFC East. Needless to say, they can’t dick around with this one.

Their offense has had an up and down season, and have particularly struggled in their last two games where they’ve collectively put up 19 points. In fairness, one of those games was a bad weather game against the Patriots, and the other featured a slew of injuries to the offense. Their top two wide receivers, Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffrey, were both out, as was their all pro RT Lane Johnson. All three will return for this one.

Much like the rest of the Eagles offense, QB Carson Wentz has also had an up and down season. He’s put up total crap games that would make you question his place in the league, and he’s put up games that would put him in the MVP conversation. In total, he has a 62.6% completion percentage with 6.5 yards per attempt, 17 TDs, and 6 picks. He’s been a middle of the road, high variance QB.

Wentz plays behind one of the top offensive lines in all of football (that is rarely totally healthy, but will be for this), but the Eagles weaponry has underwhelmed. TE Zach Ertz, who leads the team in virtually all receiving stats, surprisingly showed up on the injury report Wednesday with a mysterious hamstring injury. He did get in a limited practice session on Wednesday, and there seems to be optimism that he’ll be fine to play. As mentioned, Agholor and Jeffery are the top WRs. Jeffery has battled injuries himself, but when on the field has been productive. The Eagles will also feature TE Dallas Goedert and rookie RB Miles Sanders in the passing game, which probably tells you all you need to know about the Eagles wide receiver depth. On the ground, Jordan Howard has missed the last two games and is a true questionable. If he can’t go, Miles Sanders and Jay Ajayi will likely split carries.

On defense, the Eagles have a top 10 team by DVOA with some glaring holes. Their pass rush is absolutely superb – there’s plenty of pressures to go around between Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and Vinny Curry. That said, their secondary blows chunks. Though their corners have been battling injuries and are as healthy as they’ve been all season, their starters just aren’t good. Their pass defense is similar to the Texans, where they rely on the pass rush getting there because they know their coverage won’t hold up (which is fine, the Dolphins offensive line is a joke). Against the run, the Eagles have great run stoppers by miss too many tackles. Naturally, we don’t expect the Dolphins to be good enough to take advantage of their inefficiencies.

Here’s to the Eagles winning by double digits.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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