The below chart details the probability each team will win Super Bowl LIV, and the edge one has over a major offshore book.
This model analyzes a myriad of advanced statistics over the past decade of NFL playoffs, determines which statistics are most likely to forecast winners, and leverages those statistics in a Random Forest Model.
kelly% indicates the percentage of one’s bankroll one would wager if pursing a maximally aggressive betting strategy and only selecting a single wager from the below table. Note that in the event a bettor makes simultaneous wagers, the kelly fraction for each wager would need to be reduced.
| team | bovada odds | model odds | edge | kelly% |
| SEA | 3.4% | 20.9% | 506.1% | 18.1% |
| HOU | 2.4% | 12.1% | 396.1% | 9.9% |
| NE | 9.1% | 22.6% | 148.6% | 14.9% |
| SF | 20.0% | 40.0% | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| BAL | 31.3% | 33.9% | 8.5% | 3.9% |
| GB | 9.1% | 7.5% | -17.5% | |
| TEN | 2.2% | 1.0% | -54.0% | |
| BUF | 2.0% | 0.7% | -64.3% | |
| MIN | 2.4% | 0.7% | -71.3% | |
| NO | 14.3% | 1.6% | -88.8% | |
| PHI | 3.4% | 0.2% | -94.2% | |
| KC | 21.1% | 0.8% | -96.2% |
There are 10 total statistical features used by this model to make its evaluation. They are:
- The current odds (start of the post season) of winning the Super Bowl
- Certain DVOA statistics, courtesy of FootballOutsiders. The specific DVOA statistics used are Defense DVOA (including the recency-weighted version and Special Teams DVOA (including the recency-weighted version).
- Each team’s net points.
- Each team’s margin of victory.
- Each team’s strength of schedule throughout the season.
- Each team’s SRS and Defense SRS.
Leave a Reply