The below chart details the probability each team will win Super Bowl LIV, and the edge one has over a major offshore book.
This model analyzes a myriad of advanced statistics over the past decade of NFL playoffs, determines which statistics are most likely to forecast winners, and leverages those statistics in a Random Forest Model.
kelly% indicates the percentage of one’s bankroll one would wager if pursing a maximally aggressive betting strategy and only selecting a single wager from the below table. Note that in the event a bettor makes simultaneous wagers, the kelly fraction for each wager would need to be reduced.
|team||bovada odds||model odds||edge||kelly%|
There are 10 total statistical features used by this model to make its evaluation. They are:
- The current odds (start of the post season) of winning the Super Bowl
- Certain DVOA statistics, courtesy of FootballOutsiders. The specific DVOA statistics used are Defense DVOA (including the recency-weighted version and Special Teams DVOA (including the recency-weighted version).
- Each team’s net points.
- Each team’s margin of victory.
- Each team’s strength of schedule throughout the season.
- Each team’s SRS and Defense SRS.