Recommended Wager: NY Jets (+1) over Denver (seriously)

Denver @ NY Jets
Recommended Wager: NYJ +1
Strength: 4.68

Key Injuries:
Denver Broncos: (Week 8 bye)
-QB Drew Lock (shoulder) was injured week 2 and will be out “at least” two weeks. He was INACTIVE week 3 and is OUT week 4. He has not practiced since the injury.
-RB Phillip Lindsay (foot) was injured week 1 and INACTIVE weeks 2 and 3. He has not practiced since the injury and is expected to miss a “few weeks.” He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited all week.
-OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (quad) was injured week 3. He’s OUT week 4 after not practicing Wednesday.
IR: WR Courtland Sutton (ACL – season ending), T Ja’Wuan James (opt out), DE DeMarcus Walker (calf), DT Kyle Peko (opt out), DT Dre’Mont Jones (knee – short term), DT Jurrell Casey (biceps — season ending), OLB Von Miller (ankle), LB Mark Barron (hamstring), CB AJ Bouye (shoulder)

New York Jets: (Week 11 bye)
-WR Breshad Perriman (ankle) was injured week 2 and INACTIVE week 3 He is OUT week 4 and has not practiced since the injury.
-WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring) was INACTIVE weeks 2 and 3. He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited all week.
-RT George Fant (concussion) was INACTIVE week 3 after not practicing all week. He will return for week 4.
-LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder) was injured week 3. He is QUESTIONABLE after being limited all week.
-DE Jordan Willis (ankle) is DOUBTFUL after not practicing all week.
-OLB Jordan Jenkins (shoulder) is QUESTIONABLE after being limited all week.
-DT John Franklin-Myers (knee) is QUESTIONABLE after being limited all week.
-CB Quincy Wilson (concussion) was injured week 2 and INACTIVE week 3 after not practicing all week. He will return week 4.
IR: WR Denzel Mims (hamstring), LB CJ Mosley (opt out)

Line Watching: The line opened at Denver -2.5, went up to 3, then quickly back to 1 where the model grabbed it last night. It’s currently a pick em. Be sure to make all bets, including Thursday Night Fuck Show ones, as early as possible.

Matchup Breakdown:
Here’s the thing about betting off a model, we can’t guarantee that the games we recommend will be interesting or even watchable. My injury-adjusted power rankings list the Jets as the 31st best team this week, and the Broncos as the 32nd. Welcome to the fuck show.

Both teams are extremely beat up. The Broncos are going to start some guy named Brett Rypien at quarterback. He was a 2019 undrafted free agent out of Boise State who’s taken 13 total snaps in the NFL (all last week). They’re without their best reciver, Courtland Sutton (ACL), leaving rookie Jerry Jeudy as the top option along with TE Noah Fant. Their offensive line is terrible. Good luck, kid. Meanwhile, the defense is an even bigger disaster. They’ll be without their best pass rusher (Von Miller), their best defensive tackle (Jurrell Casey), and their best cornerback (AJ Bouye). Starting OLB Jeemiah Attaochu is also out, and rotational tackles Dre’Mont Jones and Kyle Pecko are on IR. I don’t even know how they’re even finding guys to field a team at this point.

On the Jets side, Sam Darnold continues to struggle. He’s completing just 61.5% of his passes, gaining only 5.9 yards per attempt, good for a PFF grade of 54.4. It’s hard to blame him, either, he’s had a bad offensive line and the receiving core is extremely depleted. Their hope is Jamison Crowder (hamstring) can play, but he’s very questionable after missing weeks 2 and 3 and being limited in practice all week. Their top receiver behind Crowder is Braxon Berrios, who probably belongs on a practice squad. For the offensive line, if 11th overall draft pick Mekhi Becton (questionable, shoulder) can’t go, they’ll be without their left tackle as well. Their defense has zero pass rush, a terrible secondary, and a PFF tackling grade of 29.9. There’s no need to go any deeper.

This is a bad game, but I’m happy to be taking the QB who’s name I’ve actually heard of with the point.

You’re welcome for making this game somewhat watchable (but not really).

That’s it for now, bitches.

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