Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going. This was an interesting week as the model found value in 6 different games, which is typically more than we end up betting. Let’s get into it:
Miami @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
The Thursday Night Fuck Show (TNFS). We got a bit unlucky when WR DJ Chark (chest) was ruled inactive. He had been limited in practice and all signs pointed to him playing, but something may have happened late as he sat out Wednesday’s practice and was ruled inactive. Whether it was that or Gardner Minshew laying an egg, the Jags offense was painfully inept. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a game where he could do nothing wrong. Such is life when you bet against Fitzmagic.
Final score: Miami 31, Jacksonville 13
Houston @ Pittsburgh (-4.0)
The model’s favorite bet of the week was luckily a win. We recommended betting more on this game due to the strength of the bet that the model identified. Dom and I doubled our usually wagers, so this helped recoup some losses. Pittsburgh kept up with Deshaun Watson in the first half, then their defense dominated to completely shut down the Texans offense in the second half. The poor Texans might be the best 0-3 team in the NFL history — that’s what happens when you open against KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.
Final score: Pittsburgh 28, Houston 31
LA Rams (+2.5) @ Buffalo
This was a fucking wild one. The Rams were down 28-3 (ever hear of that score?) before roaring back to take the lead 32- 28. Josh Allen and the Bills were able to drive down to the Rams 13, but it was 4th and 8 with just 13 seconds to go. Allen through a pass incomplete, but the refs called a bullshit DPI call on Darious Williams. Now at the 3, the Bills scored on the next play. Tough L.
Final score Buffalo 35, LA Rams 32
Cincinnati @ Philadelphia (-6.0)
There’s no way Carson Wentz can be this bad, I said. Let’s bet the Eagles when the public is going the other way, I said.
Fucking A, I suck. But not as bad as Carson Wentz. This game ended in a tie, which was particularly funny because toward the end of OT, both teams seemed just sort of over it. Whatever, let’s take the tie and go home.
Final score: Cincinnati 23, Philadelphia 23
Tampa Bay (-6.0) @ Denver
The Broncos are an injured mess. The Bucs cruised easily, even though Chris Godwin can’t seem to stay on the field.
Final score: Tampa Bay 28, Denver 10
Green Bay @ New Orleans (-3.0)
This game I probably should have overruled the model on. I hate early season takes, but Brees being cooked and Rodgers being the MVP aren’t insane takes. Brees is old as dirt, and his play has declined toward the end of the last two seasons, and we know Rodgers has that level of play in him. Still, without DeVante Adams, I felt like the Saints roster was enough to overcome the QP gap, particularly if Michael Thomas could play. Before kickoff, some books were actually offering 3.5, which made me feel better about our decision.
Then Thomas didn’t play, and the Packers were the better team. Our 4th L of the week.
Final score: Green Bay 37, New Orleans 30