Recommended Wager: Seattle (-6.5) over Miami

Seattle @ Miami
Recommended Bet: SEA -6.5
Strength: 3.80

Key Injuries:
Seattle Seahawks: (Week 6 bye)
-RB Chris Carson (knee sprain) was injured week 3. He is QUESTIONABLE, but got in a full practice Friday.
-CB Quinton Dunbar (knee) was INACTIVE week 3. He is OUT after not practicing all week.
-CB Neiko Thorpe (hip) was INACTIVE week 3. He is QUESTIONABLE, but did not practice Thursday/Friday.
-CB Shaquill Griffin (shoulder) is QUESTIONABLE, but practiced in full Friday.
-S Jamal Adams (groin) was injured week 3. He is OUT after not practicing all week.
IR: WR Phillip Dorsett (foot), RB Rashaad Penny (knee), OLB Bruce Irvin (ACL – season ending), DE Rasheem Green (shoulder

Miami Dolphins: (Week 11 bye)
-RG Solomon Kindley (foot) is QUESTIONABLE. He showed up on the injury report Friday as limited.
-CB Byron Jones (groin) was injured week 2 and INACTIVE week 3 after not practicing all week. He will return week 4.
IR: WR Albert Wilson (opt out), WR Antonio Callways (suspension till week 8), Vince Biegel (Achilles)

Line watching: The line opened at 6.5 and briefly jumped to 7 before going back down to 6.5, which is where the model grabbed it. It’s currently at 6.

Matchup Breakdown:
One of the bigger storylines of the 2020 season is the Seahawks executing a very bold strategy by making their best player, Russell Wilson, a key part of the game plan. Per sharpfootballstats.com, the Seahawks threw the ball just 47% of the time on 1st and 2nd down when the score was within 10, which was 5th least in the league. This year they’re at 57%, which is 7th most. The results speak for themselves: the Seahawks have put up at least 35 points in all 3 games, and Wilson is an early favorite to be MVP. Wilson is completing an absurd 76.5% of his passes and averaging 9 yards per attempt with a PFF grade of 93.6. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are again Wilson’s favorite targets, and both are having great seasons. RB Chris Carson is the next highest targeted receiver, so they’re lacking a bit at receiver depth, but it simply doesn’t matter when Wilson is playing at this level. I was a bit concerned about the offensive line, which is mediocre at best and had 3 injuries last week, but all were taken off the injury report and will play.

The defense is another story. Riddled by the injury bug, they lost arguably their best pass rusher (Bruce Irvin) to an ACL injury week 2. That leaves their defensive line as one of the worst in the league. The linebacker duo of Bobby Wager and KJ Wright is, however, exceptional. Their leader in total pressures is do it all safety Jamal Adams, who will miss with a groin injury. The secondary will also be without CB Quinton Dunbar and potentially CBs Neiko Thorpe (hip) and Shaquill Griffin (shoulder). I’m guessing Griffin plays and gets the start, since he was a full participant Friday, and he’ll be opposite Trey Flowers. QBs have a rating of 152.1 when targeting Flowers, which is almost perfect. No pass rush + a struggling and injured secondary is not a good recipe.

The story of the Dolphins offense is the same as it’s been since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over as QB. The offensive line is terrible, like, historically awful, worst in the league status. They made some minor tweaks by drafting Austin Jackson in the first round, but asking a single rookie to elevate the play of the entire line is too much — and Jackson’s 52.7 PFF pass blocking grade isn’t great anyway. As a result, Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting rid of the ball at lightning quick rates — he’s averaging 2.22 seconds to throw, which is second fastest in the league (behind Dwayne Haskins, 2.16). Fitzpatrick is inherently a boom or bust QB, and adding in that he has to make quick decisions simply elevates that factor. TE Mike Gesicki (18 targets) and WR DeVante Parker (17) are his favorite weapons, and both are playing quite well. 2017 7th round pick Myles Gaskin has apparently taken over the backfield, but with Dolphins backs averaging only 0.9 yards before contact, it’s hard to get anything going on the ground.

The bright spot of the Dolphins defense has been their pass rush, as they have a trio of players with 9 pressures each (Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, and Kyle Van Noy). They’ll also get CB Byron Jones back, and he pares up well with Xavien Howard. Outside of that, however, there isn’t too much to write about. Their linebackers and safeties have struggled both against the pass and the run.

That’s it for now, bitches.


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