LA Rams @ Washington
Recommended Wager: LAR -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Straight line strength: 3.15
LA Chargers @ New Orleans
Recommended Wager: NOR -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Straight line strength: 2.33
Teaser stuff: This is a teaser recommendation, which means you must win both bets, but you can adjust the line 6 points in either direction. When we recommend teasers, they’ll almost certainly be wong teasers. Dom explains what that means here.
Adjusted recommendations: The lines are based on when the model was run Wednesday night. You should only tease if your book is offering both sides between 7.5 and 8.5. The Saints are still within that range at -8, but the Rams have fallen to -7. Given that our straight line strength is over 3 for the Rams, we’d prefer you take the Rams straight -7.0 rather than tease it. Our official book keeping is based on what we recommend earlier in the week, but I wanted to provide some clarification in case you didn’t get your bets in earlier in the week or were unable to find the lines we suggest.
As this piece is about two separate games, I’ll do abbreviated matchup breakdowns for both games.
LA Rams @ Washington
Los Angeles Rams: (Week 9 bye)
-RB Cam Akers (ribs) was injured week 2. He was INACTIVE weeks 3 and 4, but will return week 5.
-LB Micah Kiser (groin) was injured week 4. He is QUESTIONABLE after not practicing Wednesday/Thursday and being limited Friday.
-CB Troy Hill (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE after being limited Thursday/Friday.
-S Jordan Fuller (shoulder) was injured week 3 and INACTIVE week 4 after being questionable/limited. He will return week 5.
IR: LG Joe Noteboom (calf — short term), DT A’Shawn Robinson (undisclosed), OLB Tarrell Lewis (knee)
Washington Football Team: (Week 8 bye)
-RG Wes Schweitzer (elbow) is QUESTIONABLE. He did not practice Wednesday/Thursday but got in a full session Friday.
-C Chase Roullier (knee) is QUESTIONABLE. He showed up on the injury report Friday and did not practice.
-DE Chase Young (groin) was INACTIVE week 4 after not practicing all week. He is QUESTIONABLE after getting in limited sessions Thursday/Friday.
IR: WR Steven Sims Jr. (toe), RG Brandon Scherff (sprained MCL), DT Matt Ioannidis (biceps)
The Rams offense has been exceptional this season, ranking 1st in DVOA (5th in the more predictive DAVE stat), 5th in EPA/play, and 4th in PFF grades. Jared Goff has been exceptional, completing 72.1% of his passes and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee are all fantastic receiving options, and the offensive line is much improved over what it was last year. The Football Team does have a solid defense, however, though they’ll take a hit if DE Chase Young can’t play (questionable, groin). They excel at getting to the quarterback, while CB Kendall Fuller is having a career year.
The Football team benched Dwayne Haskins in favor of Kyle Allen. I wouldn’t expect that to make a difference, since Allen is also terrible. The offensive line is bad and potentially without two starters, while the only offensive weapon is Terry McLaurin. Outside of the New York teams, it’s the worst offense in football. The Rams defense is more middle of the road — Aaron Donald is still a one man wrecking crew, but he’s the only player in the front 7 with a PFF grade above 60. Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill, and Darious Williams have been solid at corner, but the safety tandem of Tayler Rapp and John Johnson have underwhelmed against the pass and the run.
LA Chargers @ New Orleans
Los Angeles Chargers: (Week 10 bye)
-WR Mike Williams (hamstring) was injured week 3 and INACTIVE week 4 after not practicing all week. He returned to practice this week as limited and is QUESTIONABLE.
-RG Trai Turner (groin) was INACTIVE weeks 3 and 4. He is OUT and has not practiced since the injury.
-RT Bryan Bulaga (back) was injured week 3 and INACTIVE week 4. He is OUT and has not practiced since the injury.
-DE Joey Bosa (triceps/knee) is QUESTIONABLE after not practicing Thursday. He got in limited sessions Friday/Saturday.
IR: RB Austin Ekeler (hamstring), C Mike Pouncey (hip), DE Melvin Ingram III (knee — short term), DE Justin Jones (shoulder — short term), LB Drue Tranquill (ankle), CB Chris Harris (ankle), S Derwin James (knee)
New Orleans Saints: (Week 6 bye)
-WR Michael Thomas (ankle) was INACATIVE weeks 2 – 4. He was limited leading up to week 4. He is again limited this week and is QUESTIONABLE.
-TE Jared Cook (groin) was INACTIVE week 4 after not practicing all week. He returned to practice this week as limited and is QUESTIONABLE.
-LG Andrus Peat (ankle) was injured week 3 and INACTIVE week 4 after not practicing all week. He returned to practice this week as limited and is QUESTIONABLE.
-RT Ryan Ramczyk (concussion) was injured week 4, but has been cleared and will play.
-DE Marcus Davenport (elbow/toe) was INACTIVE weeks 1 – 4. The toe injury is new, and he did not practice Thursday/Friday leading up to week 4. He returned to practice this week as limited and is QUESTIONABLE.
-DT Sheldon Rankins (thumb) is QUESTIONABLE. He showed up on the injury report Saturday and did not practice.
-CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) was INACTIVE week 4 after not practicing Thursday/Friday. He returned to practice this week as limited and is QUESTIONABLE.
-CB Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) was INACTIVE week 4 and OUT week 5. He has not practiced since the injury.
IR: LB Kiko Alonso (knee)
Justin Herbert has impressed the Chargers coaching staff to the point where they’ve named him the starter, regardless of when Tyrod Taylor is ready to come back. Though he’s been a pleasant surprise, we should pump the breaks on the Chargers offense. If we take out week 1 where Taylor started, the Chargers still rank just 25th in EPA/play. Herbet has made impressive throws, but he’s also putting the ball in harms way far too often (3.08% turnover worthy plays). Since Austin Ekeler is out, the receiving core is essentially down to Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. The offensive line has also been terrible and will be without two starters. They’ll be facing a solid Saints defense that has underperformed. They’re 12th in DVOA, but 6th in the more predictive DAVE statistic. Cameron Jordan and his 9 pressures has been one of the bigger disappointments, as they’ve been unable to generate the type of pressure we’d expect without him performing at his normal pro bowl levels. In general, it’s a solid roster and I’d expect them to play better moving forward.
Drew Brees showed last week he still has some football in him, even if his best years are well behind him. The biggest question is if Michael Thomas can return, but I think given that he’s had limited practices for multiple weeks he should be able to play. Even without Thomas, the offense still ranks 10th in DVOA and 11th in EPA/play. The Chargers defense has been solid (11th in DVOA, 8th in EPA/play), though their pass rush will take a major hit if Joey Bosa can’t go — especially since they already lost Melvin Ingram (knee). CB Casey Hayward Jr. has also underperformed, evident by his 52.2 PFF grade.
Enjoy your tease, friends.