Week 5 Recap: Saved by Monday Night Overtime

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers. Let’s get into it:

Tampa Bay (-3.5) over Chicago
Starting off with an L on Thursday Night football is never ideal. Perhaps I should have faded the Bucs given their injuries at the skill position, but we do account for injuries in the model via my power rankings, and I thought the strength that the model spit out was enough to make the bet. Tom Brady didn’t complete a pass that traveled more than 10 yards in the air — he was either not at his best or the health of his receivers hampered production. This game was also a microsome for the inconsistency of Nick Foles — drive by drive, he was either dropping in outstanding passes or looking like he belonged on the practice squad. The game was always too close to ever have a solid shot at covering a 3.5 point spread. In the end, Brady forgot how to count, and we lost.

Final score: Chicago 20, Tampa Bay 19

Carolina @ Atlanta (2.0)
The Falcons have been banned from the model, with prejudice.

As for the Panthers, they’re top 10 in EPA/play since the Christian McCaffrey injury. Credit to a team that everyone assumed would be in the tank-for-Trevor discussion.

Final score: Carolina 23, Atlanta 16

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
I wrote in the preview blog that Carson Wentz is NOT this bad. He can’t be this bad. But with the injuries to the offensive line and receivers, coupled with the matchup against a dominant Blitzburgh defense, I figured if he was going to figure it out, it wasn’t going to be this week.

I was wrong. Wentz only completed 57.1% of his passes, but he gained 7.4 yards per attempt and had a PFF passing grade of 83.8. Travis Fulgham broke out, catching 10 passses on 13 targets for 152 yards and a touchdown. Luckily for us, Chase Claypool dominated on the other end, catching 7 passes on 11 targets for 110 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also had a score on the ground, and a touchdown taken due to a bad offensive pass interference penalty.

Thank you, Chase.

Final score: Pittsburgh 38, Philadelphia 21

2 team tease: LA Rams (-1.5) @ Washington and LA Chargers @ New Orleans (-1.5)
The first leg of the teaser saw the Rams beat the Washington Football Team comfortably. Our advice was to take the Rams -7 if the line moved off 7.5, and if you did that you would have won anyway.

The second leg, on Monday Night, was a total sweat. The old man/’washed up version of Drew Brees showed up to start the game, and the Chargers jumped out to a 20-10 lead at the half. The Saints then engineered an 8 pay, 73 yard drive that was capped off by a Taysom Hill touchdown run to tie the game with 2:43 to go. Justin Herbert connected on a deep pass to Mike Williams which put the ball on the Saints 32 yard line, but kicker Matt Badgley missed a potential game winning 50 yard field goal. The Saints scored a field goal on their first overtime possession. After the Chargers failed on their next possession, we were able to cover the teased spread. A little good variance on our side.

Final scores:
LA Rams 30, Washington 10
New Orleans 30, LA Chargers 27

YTD Record: 10-11
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)


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