Recommended Wager: NY Jets (+9.5) over Miami

NY Jets @ Miami
Recommended Wager: NYJ +9.5
Strength: 2.65

Key Injuries:
New York Jets: (Week 11 bye)
-QB Sam Darnold (shoulder strain) was injured week 4 and INACTIVE week 5 after not practicing all week. He is OUT week 6.
-WR Breshad Perriman (ankle) was injured week 2 and INACTIVE weeks 3 – 5. He returned to practice this week as limited and is QUESTIONABLE.
-LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder) was injured week 3. He was active week 4, but did not start due to injury concerns. He entered the game after an injury and reinjured his shoulder. He was INACTIVE week 5 after not practicing all week and is DOUBTUFL week 6. He got in his first limited practice Friday.
-LG Alex Lewis (shoulder) is QUESTIONABLE. He got in limited sessions Thursday/Friday.
-DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring) is QUESTIONABLE after being limited all week.
-CB Bless Austin (calf) is QUESTIONABLE. He was listed as questionable last week with the same injury and played, but it’s worth noting since he did not practice Friday.
IR: WR Denzel Mims (hamstring), WR Chris Hogan (high ankle sprain), LB CJ Mosley (opt out)

Miami Dolphins: (Week 11 bye)
-DE Shaq Lawson (shoulder) was INACTIVE week 5 after being limited in practice. He was again limited this week and is QUESTIONABLE.
-LB Kyle Van Noy (groin) is QUESTIONABLE after getting in limited sessions Thursday/Friday.
IR: WR Albert Wilson (opt out), WR Antonio Callways (suspension till week 8), Vince Biegel (Achilles), LT Austin Jackson (foot)

Line watching: The line opened at 8 and was quickly bet up to 9. It’s bounced around between 9 and 10 since then, currently sitting at 9.5.

Matchup breakdown:
I promise not to spend a ton of time on this shit game.

I ranked the Jets as the worst team in football, and they’ll be without their starting QB. Joe Flacco gets the start again, and so far this season his numbers and advanced statistics have been fairly similar to Sam Darnold. I think that’s more or less expected since the reporting cast is so poor, so I really don’t view the QB change as a massive difference to the Jets potential on offense. Flacco is completing 57.1% of his passes and gaining 6.0 yards per attempt with a PFF grade of 56.4. Darnold’s numbers are 59.4%, 5.7, and 58.7. The offensive line is going to continue to struggle, particularly without standout rookie Mekhi Becton. Jamison Crowder will be the leading receiver with Jeff Smith, TE Chris Herndon, and potentially Breshad Perriman (questionable, ankle) if he can go. Their defense is 25th in DVOA and 27th in EPA/play. DVOA suggests their run defense is far superior to their pass defense, ranking their pass defense 31st in the league and their run defense 9th. Some highlights have been DT John Franklin-Myers, who leads the team with 13 pressures and has been solid against the run. Slot CB Brian Poole has a solid 81.6 PFF coverage grade, and QBs have a rating of 67.2 when targeting him. Everyone else is playing terribly.

Onto the Dolphins who, yes, I know, beat the 49ers handedly last week. I write this about Ryan Fitzpatrick a lot, but he’s the ultimate up and down quarterback. He plays fearlessly and at time wrecklessly, he won’t give a second thought to heaving one up into double coverage 20 yards down the field. That ultimately makes him high varaince, so it isn’t a surprise when he beats a solid team, and it isn’t a surprise when he totally shits the bed. His PFF grades by game are 57 -> 69.9 (nice) -> 91.5 -> 60.5 -> 88.0. The dude is all over the fucking place. The stars of the receiving core have been DeVantate Parker (32 targets) and TE Mike Gesicki (27), who are both playing well. Myles Gaskin will see the bulk of the carries with Matt Brieda getting in some work as well. The offensive line is terrible, but Fitzpatrick, to his credit, is able to mitigate this by getting rid of the ball in 2.23 seconds on average, second fastest in the league. The Dolphins offense is 15th in DVOA, but 25th in the more predictive DAVE stat. As such, we’re expecting them to play worse going forward.

The Dolphins defense is 26th in DVOA and 19th in EPA/play. They have a decent enough pass rush with 4 different players with double digit pressures (Emmanuel Ogbah, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson, and Zach Sieler), although two of those players — Van Noy and Lawson — are questionable. Their linebacking core is one of the worst in the league, and the secondary is playing worse then I’d expect. CB Xavien Howard is playing well, but Byron Jones, who the Dolphins paid a boat load of money to in the offseason, has missed games due to injury and is struggling.

Remember, you aren’t betting on the Jets. You’re betting that spotting the Dolphins 9.5 points is simply too many.

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