I have a confession to make.

This week I am taking the moneyline on the worst team in the NFL. 

I’m betting a team with a lame duck coach, less than 100 points scored, and strong odds to land top pick in the draft will get its first (and, let’s be realistic, probably only) win this Sunday.

I have an even worse confession: I was born into this world a Jets fan.  And despite plenty of skepticism from my sports betting friends in Boston, we have three very solid reasons for betting the Jets this week.

First, we utilize a thorough quantitative process that determines our favored wagers.  For reasons outlined here, this process recognizes that, while the Jets are horrendous, they’re not worst-team-in-NFL-history bad.

Second, the public vitriol of the Jets has driven the spread on this game into the 13+ point range and their moneyline odds to around +500.  These are REALLY big numbers.  If anyone out there buys the narrative that sports bettors pick up value when they buck the trend, this is your opportunity to put your balls on the table and make those tough bets.

Lastly, long odds are difficult to price.  We almost exclusively recommend spread wagers, sometimes with the inclusion of the occasional (wong) teaser, but in this case we’re taking the Jets outright.  One needs considerably more data to come to a definitive conclusion about rare events than one needs to reach that same conclusion about more normally distributed ones.

Bet the Jets. Do it.

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