Buffalo @ NY Jets
Recommended Wager: NYJ Moneyline +500
Model Strength: 5.10 (vs the spread)
Buffalo Bills: (Week 11 bye)
-LG Cody Ford (sprained MCL) was injured week 6 and will miss 2-4 weeks.
-LB Matt Milano (pec) was INACTIVE week 6 after being questionable/limited.
IR: G Jon Feliciano (shoulder), DT Star Lotulelei (opt out), CB EJ Gaines (opt out), CB Levi Wallace (ankle)
New York Jets: (Week 10 bye)
-QB Sam Darnold (shoulder strain) was injured week 4 and INACTIVE weeks 5 week 6. He his healthy enough to play and could return whenever the coaching staff believes he’s ready.
-LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder) was injured week 3. He was active week 4, but did not start due to injury concerns. He entered the game after an injury and reinjured his shoulder. He was INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He did get in a late week limited session ahead of week 6.
IR: WR Denzel Mims (hamstring), WR Chris Hogan (high ankle sprain), LB CJ Mosley (opt out)
Spread watching: The spread opened at 10.5 and was quickly bet up to 13. The markets response to the shit storm that is the Jets is what created our value.
Recommendation and book keeping: Though we’re recommending the moneyline, we’re obviously fine with the spread as well. I recommend you compare what your book has for a spread vs a moneyline here and take the better option.
I also track our progress through the weekly recap blogs. For the purposes of record keeping, this bet will be tracked based on whether or not the Jets cover 13. Naturally, it would be a bit absurd to count moneyline bets via win/loss records. It’s a common handiscammer trick to bet favorites on the moneyline and present what seems to be an impressive win/loss record.
The strength of the Bills is without question their offense, which ranks 11th in DVOA and 6th in EPA/play. QB Josh Allen got off to a red hot start, but has come back down to earth in the last two weeks. In the first four weeks, Allen was PFFs 4th highest graded QB. In the last two, he’s 20th best. He still has a solid 86.3 PFF grade while completing 67.1% of his passes and gaining 7.9 yards per attempt. He’s also a solid threat with his legs, though he’s only gaining 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground. Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and John Brown are one the better receiving trios in football, while Devin Singletary is a solid runner who will also chip in as a receiver. The offensive line is decent enough — they’re weak at the interior, but strong at the tackle positions. On defense, the Bills are 29th in DVOA and 30th in EPA/play. Outside of Jerry Hughes, they struggle to generate pressure. Meanwhile, star corner Tre’Davious White is having one of his worst seasons of his career — QBs have a solid 128.1 rating when targeting him this year.
I won’t dive too deep into the Jets, because they’re so terrible that it makes me sad to write about them.
Here is all you need to know: they are dead last in overall DVOA, 31st in offensive DVOA, and 24th in defensive DVOA. They’re dead last in offensive EPA/play, and 24th in defensive EPA/play. PFF grades rank them dead last in the following categories: overall, offensive, passing, and receiving. They’re sort of pretending like their starting QB is hurt, when we all saw him return mid game when he got injured. They rushed back their franchise left tackle only to see him get re-injured mid game. There’s a few bright spots on defense, like John Franlin-Myers, an interior lineman who’s generated 16 pressures on the season. Quinnen Williams is a solid run stopping lineman. Slot corner Brian Poole is allowing a passer rating of 57 when targeted, and safety Marcus Maye has been solid as well. Everyone else is Jets-esque.
See? It’s fucking depressing.
Are you seriously fucking telling me to bet the Jets right now? Ok, I’ll address the elephant in the room. You probably think we’re crazy — I can speak for myself when I say I would agree, but that’s a conversation between myself and my therapist. The perception is that the Jets aren’t just the worst team in the league, it’s that they’re historically awful. They’re 0-6 against the spread, there’s lines popping up left and right giving bettors lines on if the Jest will go 0-16. The “would they beat Alabama” jokes aren’t even funny. This reddit user is kinda sorta suggesting that the Jets could go 0-16 against the sperad. This team is the worst fucking team ever and the firstandthirty guys would be better off trying to win stuffed animals at rigged carnival games.
Here’s the thing, you’re wrong.
But you’re not that wrong.
I ranked the Jets 32 in my power rankings. I think they’re the unquestioned, worst team in the league. But are they historically bad? No. They’re just the usual crap that comes out of the NFL every god damn year. Aaron Shatz, founder of footballoutsiders.com, put it best.
BUT THE EYE TEST, AARON. I watched the Jets and they are quite literally a CFL team. If the Washington Generals put on football pads and played the Jets they’d win their first ever game.
I don’t expect you to remember the ’05 49ers or the ’08 Chiefs, but how about the ’19 Dolphins, who ended up winning 5 games? That team once made me literally vomit when they lost 43-0 to the Patriots week 2 (that may have been too much whiskey from the night before, though). Those 5-win Dolphins finished with a 58.6 PFF grade. The Jets are at 59.
Plus, have you ever heard of fading the public? What better way to fade the public then to bet the team that everyone is laughing at? Exactly.
The reality is if you’re trusting your eyes or your gut, you’ve already lost to Vegas. If you’re making bets that you’re comfortable with or you think are sharp because your brain says so, you’ve already lost. I watch and pay attention to way more football than I care to admit, but I’m smart enough to know that I’m still an idiot, so I trust the numbers. The numbers are there to give your stupid brain a reality check, and they’re telling us that the Jets are just normal terrible, not historically terrible. The betting market isn’t smart enough to know they’re stupid, so they blindly bet against the Jets no matter what the cost or spread is. That moved the line way further than it ever should have, and our model recognized the value. That’s why you need a model. At +500, I assume the Jets will lose this game, but to make it a smart bet the only need to win more than 16.7% of the time. So yeah, we’re betting the Jets. Do the right thing and join us.