Mimosas and Line Movements

A common recommendation on first and thirty is to bet games as early as possible. We typically run the model the Tuesday night when once we have all the data from the pervious week. Since a lot of time has passed since then, I thought it would be interesting to see where the lines have shifted (naturally while sipping a mimosa.. because it’s Sunday, baby).

The following bets were all identified Tuesday as having a strength of at least 2 points.

Buffalo @ NY Jets
Wager: NYJ +13
Strength: 5.10
Current line: Bills -10. This one moved heavily toward the model, which we’d hope would happen given the high strength. The line actually opened at 10.5, so it seems the market reacted strongly to the suck fest that is the Jets, which is what created our value.

Green Bay @ Houston
Wager: HOU +3.5
Strength: 3.16
Current line: GB -3.5, such is typical when the line is up against 3 or 7.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Wager: CIN +3.5
Strength: 2.73
Current line: CLE 3.5, see above

Tampa Bay @ Las Vegas
Wager: TB -3.0
Strength: 2.56
Current line: TB -4.5. This one again moved toward the model, though to be fair the entire Raiders offensive line had to be quarantined after LT Trent Brown tested positive for COVID-19. This may have been a bit of an overreaction since it’s seemed obvious for a few days now that the line (minus Brown) would be cleared to play. Or the model was just ahead of the game.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee
Wager: TEN +2.0
Strength: 2.36
Current line: TEN -1.5. This one changed massively with the Titans shifting from a 2 point dog to a 1.5 point favorite. The model thinks this should be about a pick em.

Seattle @ Arizona
Wager: ARI +3.5
Strength: 2.25
Current line: SEA -3.5. Once again, see above. The model really went after the 3 point hook this week. This isn’t totally surprising since the model adjusts for the hook, as Dom explains here.

Carolina @ New Orleans
Wager: NO -7.5
Strength: 2.12
Current line: NO -7. This one was the only game that moved away from the model. The model was run prior to the news that Michael Thomas was injured in practice and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID-19, and I think that’s likely the cause of the shift.

Enjoy your Sunday, friends.

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