The house is empty: home field advantage is worth a mere 1.5 points this year.

One of our goals at First and Thirty is to present you with a fully transparent process for how we evaluate and recommend wagers.  One of the trickiest parts to modeling the NFL this year has been in evaluating home field advantage.

I initially rolled out a model that featured a home field advantage slightly reduced from the 2.5 points we classically used.  I reduced that mildly several weeks ago and am reducing it again as we come up on the middle weeks of the season.  Home field advantage will be adjusted down a quarter point, to 1.5 points.

This is admittedly far lower than I had ever expected, and there is no doubt that the absence of fans at games has substantially impacted home teams this year.

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