One of our goals at First and Thirty is to present you with a fully transparent process for how we evaluate and recommend wagers. One of the trickiest parts to modeling the NFL this year has been in evaluating home field advantage.
I initially rolled out a model that featured a home field advantage slightly reduced from the 2.5 points we classically used. I reduced that mildly several weeks ago and am reducing it again as we come up on the middle weeks of the season. Home field advantage will be adjusted down a quarter point, to 1.5 points.
This is admittedly far lower than I had ever expected, and there is no doubt that the absence of fans at games has substantially impacted home teams this year.