Recommended Wager: NY Jets (+19.5) over Kansas City

NY Jets @ Kansas City
Recommended Wager: NYJ +19.5
Strength: 2.34

Key Injuries:
New York Jets: (Week 10 bye)
-WR Jamison Crowder (groin) was INACTIVE week 7 after being injured in practice. He was questionable/limited last week. He did not practice Wednesday.
-WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) was injured week 7. He did not practice Wednesday.
-LG Alex Lewis (shoulder) was INACTIVE week 7 after not practicing all week. He returned to practice this week as limited.
IR: WR Chris Hogan (high ankle sprain), LB CJ Mosley (opt out), OLB Kyle Phillips (ankle – season ending)

Kansas City Chiefs: (Week 10 bye)
-WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring) was injured week 5 and INACTIVE weeks 6 and 7. He has not practiced since the injury.
-RT Mitchell Schwartz (back) was INACTIVE week 7 after missing practice all week. He did not practice Wednesday.
-DE Taco Charlton (knee) was INACTIVE week 7 after missing practice all week. He practiced in full Wednesday, a sign that he should return.
IR: RB Damien Williams (opt out), G Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (opt out), G Martinas Rankin (knee), LG Kelechi Osemele (knee – season ending), DT Mike Pannel (suspension), DT Khalen Saunders (elbow), DE Michael Danna (hamstring), DE Alex Okafor (hamstring), CB L’Jarius Sneed (collarbone)

Spread watching: This bad boy is still hovering around the 19 – 19.5 mark.

Let me vent: If you ever wondered about my confidence in the model, I risked my actual, somewhat hard earned money on the fucking Jets against the Chiefs AT ARROWHEAD. I tried my hardest to make this bet not happen. Like seriously, I ranked the Chiefs 1st and the Jets dead last in our power rankings. It didn’t matter, the model still believes that the market is over-selling the Jets. I explained more on that here.

Matchup breakdown:
When the Jets have the ball:
I’ve written about the Jets far more than any man who isn’t being tortured ever should. They have the worst offense in football. What the fuck else do you need to know? Sam Darnold returned last week and continued to put the ball in harms way. Are both Perriman and Crowder going to miss? Jesus fuck. At least rookies Denzel Mims and Mekhi Becton are back. Something about Frank Gore being old. Whatever.

The tale of the Chiefs on defense is actually similar to most seasons – they’re middle of the road (13th in DVOA, 11th in EPA/play). They tend to be much better against the pass (5th in DVOA) and god awful against the run (31st). They have a decent pass rushing trio between Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. On the back end, CB Bashaud Breeland has played well, but every other defensive back has a PFF grade below 60. They’re extremely weak at linebacker, and when you couple that with their banged up defensive line, it’s easy to see why they’ve had trouble defending against the run.

When the Chiefs have the ball:
Yeah, the Chiefs offense — maybe you’ve heard of them — are 1st in DVOA and 3rd in EPA/play. Pat Mahomes is having another stellar season, completing 65.7% of his passes, good for 7.8 yards per attempt and an 83.6 PFF grade. His grade is a bit lower than most seasons because he’s been a bit more prone to turnovers on deep shots this season — his turnover worthy play percentage is at 3.04%, which suggests he’s been lucky since he’s only thrown 1 INT. Per usual, Travis Kelce (54 targets) and Tyreek Hikk (48) are the top two options – especially with Sammy Watkins (hamstring) expecting to miss another week. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman are the next guys up. Their offensive line has been extremely strong at the tackle positions and weak at the interior, but if All-Pro RT Mitchell Schwartz (back) can’t play, that’s another position they’ll be weak at. In Le’Veon Bell’s first game with the Chiefs, he had 6 carries and zero targets. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire remained the top option with 8 carries and 4 targets.

The Jets on defense are a more reasonable 20th in DVOA and 23rd in EPA/play. The bright spots are:
-Slot CB Brian Poole, QBs have a passing grade of 67.1 when tageting him. PFF gives Poole an 81.3 coverage grade
-S Marcus Maye, who has been solid both in coverage and against the run.
-DT John Franklin-Myers, an interior pass rusher with 21 pressures.
-DT Quinnen Williams, a solid run stuffer.

Not that it matters. They’re playing Pat Mahomes and will get crushed. Just not by 20.

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