Mimosas and Line Movements

A common recommendation on first and thirty is to bet games as early as possible. We typically run the model the Tuesday night when once we have all the data from the pervious week. Since a lot of time has passed since then, I thought it would be interesting to see where the lines have shifted (naturally while sipping a mimosa.. because I’m classy).

All lines on this site come from the Vegas consensus.

LA Rams @ Miami
Wager: LAR -4.0
Strength: 4.41
Current line: LAR -3.5. A move from 4 to 3.5 is completely insignificant, though I’ve seen some books offering to pay short at -3. We still highly recommend the Rams.

NY Jets @ Kansas City
Recommended Wager: NYJ +19.5
Strength: 2.34
Current line: This is still at 19.5. Apparently the market is confident in that number. Without any significant news coming out, we’re still recommending the Jets at that price.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Wager: PIT +3.5
Strength: 2.20
Current line: Baltimore -4. Similar to the Rams game, this isn’t a significant move. We still think you should fire up the Steelers with the points if you haven’t already.

This exercise was pointless. The lines in our games hardly budged since Tuesday. Oh well, thanks for reading.

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