Week 8 Recap: Damn You, Jared Goff

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers. Let’s get into it:

LA Rams @ Miami
Wager: LAR -4.0
Strength: 4.41

The model’s favorite bet of the week liked the Rams to win big against the Dolphins. That uh, didn’t work out so well, with the Dolphins winning out right.

I wrote in the preview blog that I expected rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa to struggle in his NFL debut. The Dolphins offensive line was severely mismatched vs Aaron Donald and the Rams pass rush. Tua was either going to have to get rid of the ball quickly, which is outside of his comfort zone, or he was going to do what he preferred and get mashed by the Rams pass rush. Tua opted for the former — his 2.08 average seconds to throw was second fastest on the week behind Ben Roethlisberger’s 2.05 seconds. It didn’t work at all — Tua ended up completing just 12 of 22 passes (54.5%) and only gained 4.2 yards per attempt (93 total yards). The Dolphins were equally horrible running the ball, gaining just under a yard before contact and 2.2 yards per rush. This part of the game worked out exactly as we’d predicted.

What went wrong was a Dolphins special teams touchdown and Jared Goff playing like literal dog shit. I’ll give the Dolphins credit – they came in with a clear game plan to pressure Goff from blitzes, and it worked. They blitzed on 37 of 61 dropbacks (60%), and in those plays Goff was 18/37 (48.6%) with 177 yards (4.8 YPA), with a touchdown and a pick. In total, PFF charted 5 turnover worthy plays from Goff, which included 2 INTs and 2 lost fumbles.

As bad as the Dolphins offense was, the Rams was even worse.

Final score: Miami 28, LA Rams 17

NY Jets @ Kansas City
Recommended Wager: NYJ +19.5
Strength: 2.34

Pat Mahomes did more or less what you’d expect against the Jets. He ended up going 31/42 (73.8%), good for 416 yards and 5 TDs. Mahomes was pulled in the 4th quarter once the game was decided.

When you’re betting a big dog, you certainly don’t want to count on the starters resting and your team back door covering in garbage time, but it’s certainly a possibility. That said, the Jets offense was absurdly inept, and even garbage time couldn’t save them.

And then I see tweets like this and can’t help but think we’ll be on them again. Gamblers life can be brutal.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Wager: PIT +3.5
Strength: 2.20

Onto our one win of the week! The Steelers offense struggled most of the game, but luckily their dominant front seven came to play. They sacked Lamar Jackson 4 times and forced him to commit 4 turnovers, including a pick 6. That to me was the biggest difference – game manager Ben Roethlisberger kept the ball out of harms way. The Steelers ended up winning a close one, but since we had them at +3.5 it was never really in jeopardy.

Final score: Pittsburgh 28, Baltimore 24

YTD Record: 18-16 (53%)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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