Recommended Wager: Indianapolis (+2.5) over Baltimore

Baltimore @ Indianapolis
Recommended Wager: Indy +2.5
Strength: 2.47
Sizing: 1 unit

Key Injuries:
Baltimore Ravens: (Week 7 bye)
-RB Mark Ingram II (ankle) was injured week 6. He was INACTIVE week 8 and is DOUBTFUL week 9. He has not practiced since the injury.
-LB L.J. Fort (finger) is OUT week 9. He was a Saturday addition to the injury report.
-CB Jimmy Smith (back) is QUESTIONABLE after missing practice Friday.
IR: LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle – season ending), CB Tavon Young (ACL – Season Ending), CB Marlon Humphrey (COVID-19)

Indianapolis Colts: (Week 7 bye)
-WR TY Hilton (groin) was injured week 8. He is DOUBTFUL after missing practice all week.
IR: WR Parris Campbell (PCL), RB Marlon Mack (achilles — season ending), DT Sheldon Day (knee), CB Marvell Tell (opt out), CB Rolan Milligan (opt out), S Malik Hooker (achilles — season ending)

Spread watching: The model grabbed the line at 2.5 on Tuesday, and it’s now down to 1.5. There’s still some value on the Indy side, but probably not enough to overcome the vig.

Keys to the game: The Ravens offense was a surprisingly bad 20th in DOVA and 21st in EPA/play. They took a massive hit in the offseason losing guard Marshal Yanda to retirement, and that’s made the interior of their line a weak spot. Now they’ve lost All Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury, and suddenly their once dominant line has plenty of holes. The bigger issue, however, is Lamar Jackson regressing as a passer — he’s just 18th in the league in PFF passing grades. That said, he’s a dynamic threat with his legs and Mark Andrews is one of the best tight ends in the league. WR Marquise Brown is a dynamic down field threat, but he’s been silent as of late — last week in particular he had just 1 catch for a 3 yard TD. The Colts defense is 3rd in DVOA and 4th in EPA/play. They’re solid at every level, which special shout outs to interior pass rusher DeForest Buckner, LB Darius Leonard, and CB Xavier Rhodes.

The Colts offense is 22nd in DVOA and 14th in EPA/play – the difference is due to DVOA making an opponent adjustment, as the Colts offense has had the second easiest schedule of opposing defenses. Phil Rivers is still a serviceable NFL QB – he’s completing 69.7% of his passes, gaining 8.1 yards per attempt, and has a PFF grade of 76.9. The problem is they’ve had an utter lack of production at the WR position, and now with TY Hilton (groin) on the sidelines, there’s a giant question mark in terms of where the ball will go. The Ravens defense (5th in DVOA and EPA/play) is a blitz happy force, but the Colts have a solid offensive line. The battle of the trenches should be a fun one to watch. The Ravens will also be without dominant slot CB Marlon Humphrey (COVID-19), but I don’t think the Colts have the fire power to take advantage of that.

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