Week 9 Recap: The Swongs Are Real

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers. Let’s get into it:

Green Bay @ San Francisco
Recommended Wager: SF +5.5
Strength: 4.91
Sizing: 2 Units

We knew when we made this bet that the 49ers would be without Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle — essentially betting that market was over adjusting for the injuries. However, after the bet was placed wide receivers Brandon Ayiuk and Kendrick Bourne were placed on the COVID-19 list, and were therefore unable to play. This left Richie James, River Cracraft, and Trent Taylor as their top three receivers — Taylor was the only one of the three who had any targets of the three. The 49ers were quite literally down their entire offense.

The game went.. poorly. The Packers dominated, and the 49ers JV squad failed to get anything going offensively until late in the game.

Final score: Green Bay 34, San Francisco 17
Result: Loss, Down 2 units

Miami @ Arizona
Recommended Wager: ARI -4.5
Strength: 3.23
Sizing: 1 unit

This was a fun to watch from as a football fan — after a Kyler Murray fumble that resulted in 6 points for the Dolphins, both he and Tua Tagovailoa had a solid back and forth matchup. The Cardinals had a chance to tie it late, but kicker Zane Gonzalez missed a 49 yard field goal.

Final score: Miami 34, Arizona 31
Result: Loss, down 1 unit

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Recommended Wager: NO +5.5
Strength: 3.08
Wager sizing: 1 unit

Yikes, Sunday Night fuck show. Tom Brady and his fancy new toys were dreadfully inept on offense, and the Saints moved the ball at will against the Bucs top rated defense. It’s always good to book an easy win.

Final score: New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 3
Result: Win, up 1 unit

Houston @ Jacksonville
Recommended Wager: JAX +7
Strength: 2.57
Wager sizing: 1 unit

What’s better than betting on a QB making his NFL debut? This was looking like a loss — with the Jags down 8 with 1 drive left in the game, we needed a touchdown. But god dammit, Jake Luton lead the Jaguars on a 7 play, 80 yard drive that ended with the QB taking it in himself on a 13 yard run. After missing the 2 point conversion, the Texans ended up getting the W, but it was more than enough for us to cover the spread.

Final score: Houston 27, Jacksonville 25
Result: Win, up 1 unit

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers
Recommended Wager: LAC -1.5
Strength: 2.7
Wager sizing: 1 unit

This one hurt. It was an action packed, back and forth game, but I genuinely felt like the Chargers were the better team. They still found themselves down 5 with 4:37 minutes to go — which at least meant there interests are aligned with us — since they need a TD to win, and a TD and an extra point would also mean we cover. Justin Herbert lead a masterful drive, easily driving the field down to the Las Vegas 4. With no time on the clock, Herbert completed what looked like a touchdown to ex XFL star Donald Parham Jr., but after review, it was ruled that Parham didn’t secure the ball going to the ground. The Chargers lost a close one, yet again..

..and yes, the Chargers are better than their 2-6 record indicates. They’ll be ranked accordingly and we’ll continue to bet them if the market treats them as if they’re a 2-6 team. There is no bad luck, only variance.

Final score: Las Vegas 31, LA Chargers 26
Result: Loss, down 1 unit

Denver @ Atlanta
Recommended Wager: ATL -4.0
Strength: 2.54
Wager sizing: 1 unit

Oh, Atlanta, another team that can’t get out of their own way, right? Nah, they won easily.

Final score: Atlanta 34, Denver 27
Result: Win, up one unit

Baltimore @ Indianapolis
Recommended Wager: Indy +2.5
Strength: 2.47
Sizing: 1 unit

This line ended up closing as a pick em, so I feel pretty decent about the model identifying it. The Colts were able to slow down the Ravens offense for most of the game, but the Ravens were able to get going in the 2nd half, putting up 17 points. Meanwhile, the Colts offense was painfully stagnent.

Final score: Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 10
Result: Loss, lose one unit

Week 9 results: 3-4, lost 2 units

YTD Record: 21-20 (51%)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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