The Bears and Monday Night Football

If you’re following the lines – congratulations on trying by the way – you may have noticed the Bears are +3.5 tonight. This is a serious movement away from the model, since we recommended you take them at +2.5 on Tuesday.

There’s always a question on how to handle these type of situations. As always, we prefer our model over trying to figure out whatever the fuck is making the markets move. As such, the question is only if you prefer to take additional action on the Bears, or if we should hold off.

The Bears were actually penalized by the model since the line fell below the 3 point hook. And yet, the model still wanted the Bears. Now that they’re on the other side of 3, the model REALLY likes the Bears. At 2.5, the model gave a strength of 2.68. At 3.5, it’s 4.42.

As a result, we’re recommending you add one unit. We’ll have one unit of exposure to the Bears at +2.5, and one unit at +3.5.

Enjoy your Monday Night, friends.

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