Week 10 Recap: Thank You, Steelers

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers. Let’s get into it:

Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Wager: IND +2.0
Sizing: 1 unit

This was a fun one to watch from a line movement perspective, we took the Colts +2 early in the week, but it moved all the way to Indy being a 1 point favorite by kickoff.

As the game started, the fun vanished. The Colts were able to move the ball at will, but finding the scoreboard was a challenge. They failed to convert two separate 4th and 1 tries — one from the Tennessee 29 and the other from the Tennessee 1. Though I commend their 4th down aggressiveness, it certainly can be frustrating when the results don’t swing your way. Even still, after failing on that 4th and 1 attempt they were still only down 17-13. From there, the Colts dominated in all phases – out scoring the Titans 21-0 in the 2nd half.

Final score: Indy 34, Tennessee 17
Result: Won 1 unit

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Wager: TB -4.5
Sizing: 1 unit

You probably weren’t too surprised to see an offense that features Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowksi feasting on a Panthers defense that ranks 30th in DAVE. The crazy thing about the Bucs putting up a 46 burger is they should have scored even more, as Brady missed multiple deep passes that should have gone for long plays. Either way, it was a win that was never in doubt.

Final score: Tampa Bay 46, Carolina 23
Result: Won 1 unit

Houston @ Cleveland
Wager: HOU +3.0
Sizing: 1 unit

This game sucked. The only part worth mentioning is how the game ended. With the Browns up 3 with 1:07 left to play, RB Nick Chubb broke free for a 59 yard gain, but elected to run out at the 1 rather than take an easy touchdown. Chubb’s decision enabled the Browns to take a knee and end the game — though a touchdown would have put them up two scores with less than a minute to play, so from a win probably perspective it really didn’t matter what he did. For us on the Texans side, it meant we would push the bet rather than lose. You can say we got lucky, but I would counter that we got unlucky that Chubb was able to break free in the first place. Also, such is life when you bet favorites – the winning team won’t always do everything they can to score points. I saw some people on twitter bitching that they had the Browns -4 and lost out right. Those people should probably learn to get their bets in early.

Final score: Cleveland 10, Houston 7
Result: Push

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Wager: NYG +3.5
Sizing: 1 unit

I’m no model (pun intended), but I feel like anytime you can get an NFC East visiting team at home getting 3.5 points it’s going to be a solid bet. They all just suck, so take the points.

With Dak Prescott done for the year, Daniel Jones has a legit case to be the best QB in the division. Jones was solid through the air, and he also had another long run against the Eagles — this time making it to the end zone rather than tripping on the 20 yard line. The Eagles, meanwhile, struggled to move the ball through the air.

Final score: NY Giants 27, Philadelphia 17
Result: Won 1 unit

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Wager: PIT -7.5
Sizing: 3 units

The model was all over the Steelers yet again. Remarkably, we’ve now bet Steelers games 7 times on the year, fading them exactly zero times. Coming into the week, we were 4-1 on straight bets involving the Steelers, and we also had a tease involving Pittsburgh as well (in that game, Pittsburgh didn’t cover the spread, but we did get there via the teased spread). It’s an interesting development — we fade the hell out of win/loss records (hence why Pittsburgh has never been number 1 in my power rankings), and the Steelers are undefeated. But hey, as long as the market keeps undervaluing Pittsburgh, we’ll keep betting them.

This was one the biggest trenches mismatches in memory – with the Steelers dominant defensive line was able to predictably feast on the Bengals banged up/shitty offensive line. Pittsburgh and their finally fully healthy receiving core had no issues moving the ball, while the Bengals were predictably stagnant. An easy win on a 3 unit bet.

Final score: Pittsburgh 36, Cincinnati 10
Result: Won 3 units

San Francisco @ New Orleans
Wager: SF +9
Sizing: 1 unit

As “right” as we continue to be on Pittsburgh, that’s how “wrong” we continue to be on San Francisco (I put those words in quotes because it’s probably totally meaningless and mostly just variance). The 49ers jumped out to a 10-0 lead, then decided to do nothing the rest of the game. A bold strategy, Cotton.

Final score: New Orleans 27, San Francisco 13
Result: Lost 1 unit

Minnesota @ Chicago
Wager: CHI +2.5 and CHI +3.5
Sizing: 1 unit on each bet

This was an interesting development going into Monday Night, where we saw a massive 2.5 to 3.5 point spread away from the model. This almost never happens, but as I explained here, we trust the model over line shifts. As such, we added an additional unit to our official recommendations Monday Night.

Unfortunately, Nick Foles and the Bears offense bored me to death. If it wasn’t for a Cordarrelle Patterson kick return, this could have been even uglier.

Final score: Minnesota 19, Chicago 13
Result: Lost 2 units

Week 10 Results: 4-2-1, won 3 units

YTD Record: 25-22-1 (53%)
Week 10: Thank You, Steelers (4-2-1, won 3 units)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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