Recommended Wager: Miami (-3.5) over Denver

Miami @ Denver
Recommended Wager: MIA -3.5
Strength: 2.79
Sizing: 1 unit

Key Injuries:
Miami Dolphins: (Week 7 bye)
-LB Kyle Van Noy (hip) is QUESTIONABLE. He got in limited sessions Thursday/Friday.
IR: WR Preston Williams (foot), WR Albert Wilson (opt out), RB Myles Gaskin (knee)

Denver Broncos: (Week 5 bye)
-QB Drew Lock (ribs) was injured week 10. He’ll will play, but will not be 100%.
-RG Graham Glasgow (calf) is QUESTIONABLE. He showed up on the injury report Friday as limited.
-DT DeShawn Williams (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE. He showed up on the injury report Friday as limited.
-CB Bryce Callahan (illness) is QUESTIONABLE. He showed up on the injury report Friday and did not practice.
IR: WR Courtland Sutton (ACL – season ending), TE Albert¬†Okwuegbunam (ACL – season ending), T Ja’Wuan James (opt out), DE DeMarcus Walker (calf), DT Kyle Peko (opt out), DT Dre’Mont Jones (knee – short term), DT Jurrell Casey (biceps — season ending), DT Mike Purcell (foot – season ending), DE Shelby Harris (COVID-19), OLB Von Miller (ankle), LB Mark Barron (hamstring)

Spread watching: The line is sticking at 3.5, which isn’t too surprising given how it’s sniffing the 3 point hook.

Matchup breakdown: The Dolphins offense is 19th in DVOA and 20th in EPA/play, though I’m not quite sure how much that matters since they switched over to Tua Tagovailoa week 8. Tua hasn’t been too impressive – his PFF grade is just 59.2 and the Dolphins are 29th in EPA/play since Tua took over. I’ve written about this before — but the Dolphins have a horrid offensive line, and they lean on the quarterback to get the ball out quickly to alleviate inevitable pressure. Tua is averaging 2.3 seconds to throw — which is fairly quick — but it’s not how he prefers to play. The recievers have played well, however, DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki all have PFF grades over 70. They’ll have a tall task against a Broncos defense that ranks 11th in DVOA and 9th in EPA/play. Though a lot of their stars have been injured, it’s a defense that is solid at each level of the field and doesn’t have a weakness to pick on.

The Broncos offense is their issue – they’re dead last in DVOA and 31st in EPA/play. Yes, they have a worse offensive DVOA then the Jets. To make matters worse, starting QB Drew Lock, who is pretty bad even when healthy, is dealing with a rib injury that should impact his play (per profootballdoc). Rookie WR Jerry Jeudy has been living up to his route running hype, and Tim Patrick is having a fine year, but it simply doesn’t matter when the quarterback play and offensive line is this bad. It’s not as if the matchup is a dream scenario either — the Dolphins are 13th in defensive DVOA and 7th in EPA/play. I view it as similar to the Broncos – they excel with depth at all levels of the field, and HC Brian Flores has put together some master game plans. I don’t expect Drew Lock to get the better of them.

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