Week 11 Recap: The 4PM Slate Was Mean

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers. Let’s get into it:

New England @ Houston
Recommended Wager: HOU +2.0
Strength: 2.66
Sizing: 1 unit

This was a bit of a sweat, but Houston was the better team. For better or worse, I always feel extra confident in model backed bets where the better QB is getting points at home. The Patriots defense came in ranked dead last in defensive DVOA, and Deshaun Watson was able to carve them up. He ended the day going 28/37 (75.7%), gained 9.3 YPA, and had a ridiculous PFF grade of 94.3. Meanwhile, the Texans on defense were able to slow down New England’s new shiny receiving toy in Jaokobi Meyers, who had just 3 catches for 38 yards.

Final score: Houston 27, New England 20
Result: Won 1 unit

Miami @ Denver
Recommended Wager: MIA -3.5
Strength: 2.79
Sizing: 1 unit

It felt like we had a shot when Tua got benched..

Final score: Denver 20, Miami 13
Results: Lost 1 unit

Dallas @ Minnesota
Recommended Wager: MIN -7.0
Strength: 2.75ish
Sizing: 1 unit

With Andy Dalton back at QB, the Cowboys offense went back to playing decent football. The Cowboys jumped out to a 16-7 lead at the half, and the Vikings were never quite able to pull back.

By the way, despite trailing for most of the game, Kirk Cousins threw the ball 30 times while Dalvin Cook ran it 27 times. Cousins gained 10.5 yards per attempt, while Cook gained 4.3. Throw the ball more, dummies.

And no, the model does not assume rational coaching. It’s still tilting nonetheless.

Final score: Dallas 31, Minnesota 28

Kansas City @ Las Vegas
Recommended Wager: LV +7
Strength: 3.69
Sizing: 1 unit

Being down 1-2 going into Sunday Night fading Pat Mahomes made me want to vomit, though that could have been the excessive drinking combined with the Sunday Scaries. I don’t know, I’m not a doctor. Derek Carr and the Raiders ended up playing an awesome football game — Carr in particular, who ended with a 93.2 PFF grade. The Raiders were actually up 31-28 before Pat Mahomes lead the Chiefs on a game winning drive, capped off by a touchdown pass to a wide open Travis Kelce. Seems like a guy you should cover in the end zone, but I’m no expert. We were booking a win regardless since we had the Raiders +7, so it was good to just watch solid football and not have to worry as much about the result.

Final score: Kansas City 35, Las Vegas 31
Result: Won 1 unit

We broke dead even on the week. Does that mean we lost 0 units, or won 0 units? I’ll go with won 0 units. Glass half full.

YTD Record: 27-24-1 (53%)
Week 11: The 4PM Slate Was Mean (2-2, won 0 units)
Week 10: Thank You, Steelers (4-2-1, won 3 units)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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