LA Chargers @ Buffalo
Recommended Wager: BUF -5.5
Sizing: 1 unit
Spread watching: The model grabbed the spread at 5.5, and the consensus is now down to 4.5. We naturally still recommend betting this.
Quick game breakdown: The Bills offense (12th in DVOA, 6th in EPA/play) shouldn’t have an issue scoring points against a Chargers defense (20th in DVOA, 11th in EPA/play) that is also missing their top corner (Casey Hayward, groin) and their second best pass rusher (Melvin Ingram, knee). Though Buffalo will be without John Brown – Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have both excelled this season. Josh Allen is also 8th among QBs in PFF grades. On the other side, the Chargers are 10th in DVOA and 17th in EPA/play against a middle of the road Bills defense that is 17th in DVOA and 23rd in EPA/play. The Bills will need to find an answer for Keenan Allen, who has double digit targets in all but one of his healthy games started by Justin Herbert.
Cleveland @ Jacksonville
Recommended Wager: JAX +6.5
Sizing: 1 unit
Spread watching: The line was at 6.5 when we ran the model, and it’s now at 7. That’s a key move, and it’s due to injury news that did not work out in our favor. Since it’s crossed to a key number, I’d still take Jacksonville.
Game breakdown: The expectation when running the model was that Gardner Minshew (thumb) should be ready to return, but that isn’t happening. Jake Luton has played since Minshew originally got hurt, and the Jags decided to bench Luton and his 39.8 PFF grade for veteran Mike Glennon. Glennon, by virtue of being a professional QB, is likely an upgrade over the production that we’ve got from Luton. However, we also found out on Wednesday that top receiver DJ Chark wasn’t practicing (ribs), and he’s since been ruled out. Basically, we ran the model with a different starting QB and top receiver in mind. Rookie receiver Lavishka Shenault (hamstring), is returning, however. The good news (and we knew this when ranking the Browns), is Cleveland and their middle of the road defense (16th in both EPA/play and DVOA) will be without their top edge rusher (Myles Garrett, COVID-19) and their top corner (Denzel Ward, calf). Cleveland doesn’t have a great offense (22nd in DVOA, 21st in EPA/play), but they’re going up against a Jags defense that is 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in DVOA.