Week 12 Recap: Mayhem Prevails

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.

This was one of our best weeks of the season. We went 6-2, and finished up 7 units. Lots of amateur gamblers will see a week like that and think we “figured something out,” or some silly narrative like that. Similarly, touts will call on weeks like this as proof that they’re winning players. All are ridiculous. Our process is the same as it’s always been, it’s just that variance in football is absurd. Sometimes things will bounce our way, sometimes they won’t. It is always fun to win, though.

Houston @ Detroit
Recommended Wager: DET +3.0
Strength: 3.47
Sizing: 1 unit

This game made me throw up my Thanksgiving appetizers – which, though convenient as it opened up room for dinner, was a real let down. Deshaun Watson threw for 4 TDs, including 2 to Will Fuller, who also racked up 171 yards threw the air. It was never a game.

Final score: Houston 41, Detroit 25
Result: Lost 1 unit

Washington @ Dallas
Recommended Wager: WAS +3.0
Strength: 3.16
Sizing: 1 unit

This also wasn’t a game, but this time it was in our favor. The Football Team, despite being 3 point dogs, ran all over the Cowboys defense. In total, they gained 182 yards on the ground via 36 carries (5.1 average) and scored 3 TDs. Alex Smith wasn’t great – he gained 5.7 yards per attempt and had a 67.9 PFF grade, but it was more than enough.

Final score: Washington 41, Dallas 16
Result: Won 1 unit

LA Chargers @ Buffalo
Recommended Wager: BUF -5.5
Strength: 2.20
Sizing 1 unit

The Bills had good command of this game, though we were looking at a possible ugly back door cover after Justin Herbert completed a 55 yard Hail Mary pass to Ty Johnson. From there, Anthony Lynn and the Chargers called and absolutely horrible offense. It ended, quite potitlcally, with a failed Justin Herbert run from the 1 where the entire offensive line pass protected.

Final score: Buffalo 27, LA Chargers 17
Result: Won 1 unit

Las Vegas @ Atlanta
Recommended Wager: ATL +3.0
Strength: 2.43
Sizing 1 unit

Football is a crazy game, man. Derek Carr put on a masterful performance to almost upset the Chiefs last week, only to put up a stinker against the mess that is the Falcons defense. Variance is a crazy bitch. As for the game, it really wasn’t one. The Falcons rolled easily.

Final score: Atlanta 43, LA Raiders 6
Result: Won 1 unit

Cleveland @ Jacksonville
Recommended Wager: JAX +6.5
Strength: 2.95
Sizing 1 unit

We got a bit unlucky with finding out that Jaguars top receiver DJ Chark would miss due to a ribs issue. That shifted the line up to 7, which we still recommended due to the fact that Jake Luton wasn’t playing QB. Baker Mayfied actually had a solid game (this is still the Jaguars defense), completing 65.5% of his passes, good for 8.9 yards per attempt, and an 81.1 PFF passing grade. However, Mike Glennon and the Jaguars were able to hang in tight, easily covering the spread.

Final score: Cleveland 27, Jacksonville 25
Result: Won 1 unit

New Orleans @ Denver
Recommended Wager: NO -6.0
Strength: 4.64
Sizing: 2 units

Yeah, we bet a team that ended up playing a team without a QB on their active roster. We got super lucky and won.

Final score: New Orleans 31, Denver 3
Result: Won 2 units

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
Recommended Wager: TB +3.5
Strength: 5.39
Sizing: 3 units

When a back door cover goes your way. Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs offense was legit unstoppable — Mahomes himself finished with 462 yards and 3 TDs, while Tyreek Hill had 13 catches for 268 yards and 3 TDs. However, Kansas City has an odd way of letting teams hang in. The Bucs ended up scoring 14 unanswered in the 4th, which was just enough for us to cover.

Final score: Kansas City 27, Tampa Bay 24
Result: Won 3 units

Chicago @ Green Bay
Recommended Wager: CHI +8.5
Strength: 3.74
Sizing: 1 unit

Sunday Night Fuck Show. Every Bears QB sucks. We lost. I went to bed by the third quarter.

Final score: Green Bay 41, Chicago 25
Result: Lost 1 unit

YTD Record: 33-26-1 (56%)
Week 12: Mayhem Prevails (6-2, won 7 units)
Week 11: The 4PM Slate Was Mean (2-2, won 0 units)
Week 10: Thank You, Steelers (4-2-1, won 3 units)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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