LA Chargers @ Las Vegas
Recommended Wager: LV -3.5
Sizing: 1 unit
Spread watching: The line now sits at 3. Certainly not ideal when you’re on the wrong side of the hook, but it is what it is.
Game Breakdown: The Chargers on offense are sitting at 19th in DVOA and 21st in EPA/play. Justin Herbert is sitting at 21st in PFF grades of 40 qualifiers — he’s completing 66.3% of his passes and gaining 6.9 yards per attempt. Herbert has put together some masterpieces this season, but there’s plenty of stinkers that are bringing down his numbers. His favorite weapon is by far and away Keenan Allen, but Allen is expected to be limited with a hamstring injury. The Chargers number 2 receiver, Mike Williams, is also battling a back injury, while their top right tackle (Bryan Bulaga) is out with a concussion. It’s hard to have a lot of faith in an offense that has lacked efficiency and is banged up at highly important positions. That said, Las Vegas defense in a similar spot. They’re sitting at 28th in DVOA and 29th in EPA/play. They’ll also be without DE Clelin Ferrrell (shoulder), LB Nicholas Morrow (concussion/neck), CB Damon Arnette (concussion), CB Nevil Lawson (illness), and S Johnathan Abram. Of those out, Ferrell is the only player with a PFF grade over 70, so this isn’t exactly the most impactful list of players. Either way, two bad sides with injuries doesn’t sound like fun football, but time will tell.
The Vegas offense is 15th in DVOA and 11th in EPA/play. Derek Carr is 9th in PFF grades, completing 68.2% of his passes and gaining 7.5 yards per attempt. His first look will often be TE Darren Waller, particularly since WR Henry Ruggs (COVID-19) is out. Ruggs is a solid deep threat, but he isn’t the biggest loss out there. Nelson Agholor, Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs should be the next three most targeted receivers behind Waller. The offensive line has holes, but they’re solid at the tackle positions. They’re against a Chargers defense that sits at 22nd in DVOA. Joey Bosa is an elite pass rusher, but there’s weaknesses all over the field for Carr and the Raiders to pick on.
Win it by 4, please.