Week 16 Recap: An Oddly Quiet Week

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.

This week was relatively quiet. The model found value in just two games, compared to 6 last week and 7 the week before that. One game also ended in a push, so we had just one decisive game on the books. It was Christmas week, with Friday football, 3 Saturday games, last second wins, a snow game, a team playing without any of their wide receivers, and a Jets win. Chaos around the league is the new norm, and when you add in pandemic fueled Holidays, it was nice to not have too much to worry about on the gambling streets. Think of it as a stress relief present from the model. You’re welcome.

Atlanta @ Kansas City
Recommended Wager: ATL +10.5
Strength: 3.24
Sizing: 1 unit

Even though I wrote earlier that this was a quiet week, I should add in that it included a Pat Mahomes fade. Even getting 10.5 points, that’s never a fun spot to be in because how quickly the Chiefs are capable of scoring. The game had the highest total of the week (53), but ended up being a low scoring, grind it out win for Kansas City in a close matchup. As Falcons backers, we were more then happy to see it.

Though I mentioned that the Falcons have an underrated defense and I’d love nothing more to pat myself on the back, the reality is Mahomes had one of the worst games of his season. He only completed 54.5% of his passes and threw a pick on the goal line directly to a Falcons linebacker that was sitting underneath. The Falcons also dropped two interceptions, so Mahomes’s box score stats could have been even worse. Matt Ryan’s numbers were better (27/35, 8.6 YPA, 82.4 ESPN QBR), but the Falcons had issues sustaining drives and had issues putting points on the board. In the end, the Falcons found themselves down 3 with 1:55 to go. They were able to put together a solid drive, but Younghoe Koo missed a 39 yard field goal that would have sent it to OT.

Final score: Kansas City 17, Atlanta 14
Result: Won 1 unit

Denver @ LA Chargers
Recommended Wager: DEN +3.0
Strength: 2.64
Sizing: 1 unit

The pre-game news favored us, with Keenen Allen (hamstring), Hunter Henry (COVID-19), and Joey Bosa (shin/concussion) all being ruled out. I mentioned in the preview blog that Allen was injured and how important he is to this offense, which was part of the reason why I loved the bet. The other, as also explained, is the Broncos were the better team getting 3 points. The line ended up closing at 2.5, which was another clear signal that we were on the correct side.

The problem with the game was the suck fest that is Drew Lock. He averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, completed 51% of his passes, threw 2 picks, and had an ESPN QB rating of 42.2. The Chargers offense naturally had issues of their own, but anything was better then Lock. The result was the Chargers jumping out to a 13-0 lead at the half. In the first half, Broncos kicker Brandon McManus missed a 37 yard field goal, which was crazy because the play before that he missed a 42 yard field goal, but was bailed out by an offsides penalty. Making either of them would have been ideal, since the Broncos were able to put 13 points on the board in the 4th quarter that pulled them within 3. Complain too much about a push I shall not, and if you ended up holding a 2.5 point ticket, let this be a lesson to get your damn bets in early.

Final score: LA Chargers 19, Denver 16
Result: Push

YTD Record: 41-31-3 (57%)
Week 16: An Oddly Quiet Week (1-0-1, won 1 unit)
Week 15: Sneaking in the Backdoor (3-2-1, won 2 units)
Week 14: The Big Bets Take It (4-3, won 4 units)
Week 13: We Took A Hike (0-0)
Week 12: Mayhem Prevails (6-2, won 7 units)
Week 11: The 4PM Slate Was Mean (2-2, won 0 units)
Week 10: Thank You, Steelers (4-2-1, won 3 units)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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